Israel’s airspace has remained open since partial reopening after the April 2026 ceasefire with Iran, though it operates under ongoing EASA and other aviation warnings through at least late September 2026 due to missile and drone risks tied to the broader conflict. The US-Iran ceasefire that took hold earlier in the year broke down in July amid renewed military activity, including strikes and retaliatory actions, keeping regional tensions elevated. Israeli officials have stated no plans for closure under current conditions, yet assessments continue amid warnings of possible Iranian strikes during the September Jewish holiday period. Foreign carriers have begun resuming service to Ben Gurion, reflecting gradual normalization, while trader views on near-term closure hinge on any fresh escalation signals from Tehran or defensive responses by Israel.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$30,029,863 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre
96%
$30,029,863 Vol.
30 septembre
$2,436,704 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace has remained open since partial reopening after the April 2026 ceasefire with Iran, though it operates under ongoing EASA and other aviation warnings through at least late September 2026 due to missile and drone risks tied to the broader conflict. The US-Iran ceasefire that took hold earlier in the year broke down in July amid renewed military activity, including strikes and retaliatory actions, keeping regional tensions elevated. Israeli officials have stated no plans for closure under current conditions, yet assessments continue amid warnings of possible Iranian strikes during the September Jewish holiday period. Foreign carriers have begun resuming service to Ben Gurion, reflecting gradual normalization, while trader views on near-term closure hinge on any fresh escalation signals from Tehran or defensive responses by Israel.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$30,029,863Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace has remained open since partial reopening after the April 2026 ceasefire with Iran, though it operates under ongoing EASA and other aviation warnings through at least late September 2026 due to missile and drone risks tied to the broader conflict. The US-Iran ceasefire that took hold earlier in the year broke down in July amid renewed military activity, including strikes and retaliatory actions, keeping regional tensions elevated. Israeli officials have stated no plans for closure under current conditions, yet assessments continue amid warnings of possible Iranian strikes during the September Jewish holiday period. Foreign carriers have begun resuming service to Ben Gurion, reflecting gradual normalization, while trader views on near-term closure hinge on any fresh escalation signals from Tehran or defensive responses by Israel.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,029,863Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Israel’s airspace has remained open since partial reopening after the April 2026 ceasefire with Iran, though it operates under ongoing EASA and other aviation warnings through at least late September 2026 due to missile and drone risks tied to the broader conflict. The US-Iran ceasefire that took hold earlier in the year broke down in July amid renewed military activity, including strikes and retaliatory actions, keeping regional tensions elevated. Israeli officials have stated no plans for closure under current conditions, yet assessments continue amid warnings of possible Iranian strikes during the September Jewish holiday period. Foreign carriers have begun resuming service to Ben Gurion, reflecting gradual normalization, while trader views on near-term closure hinge on any fresh escalation signals from Tehran or defensive responses by Israel.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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