SpaceX has achieved repeated Super Heavy booster tower catches and plans the first upper-stage reflight by late 2026, yet full rapid reusability of both stages remains unproven as of September 2026. Flight 13 delivered the cleanest Starship heat-shield performance and Starlink V3 deployment to date, but the booster experienced landing-burn issues, and the ship still splashed down in the ocean. Flight 14, targeted for mid-September, will attempt the first orbital profile with production satellites, while a Mechazilla catch of the ship is deferred to Flight 15 or later. These timelines, combined with the need for demonstrated engine relights, precise guidance, and rapid refurbishment cycles before year-end, underpin the market’s 64% probability on “No.” Key near-term catalysts include Flight 14 outcomes and any announced ship-catch attempts.