SpaceX’s recent Flight 14 success—achieving Starship’s first orbital insertion, deploying operational Starlink V3 satellites, and executing controlled reentries—has reinforced trader confidence in the 80.5% implied probability for full reusability before 2028. The Super Heavy booster has already demonstrated multiple tower catches with mechanical arms, while the upper stage’s orbital performance and heat-shield data move the program closer to ship recovery attempts planned for Flight 15. Elon Musk’s statements targeting the first reflights of both stages by early 2027, followed by rapid reuse demonstrations that year, align with the aggressive but incremental test cadence. Key near-term catalysts include regulatory approvals for Florida launches, propellant transfer tests, and sustained Raptor engine reliability across repeated flights. These milestones, building on Falcon 9 heritage, underpin the market’s bullish consensus despite typical aerospace timeline risks.