SpaceX has validated Mechazilla tower catches with multiple Super Heavy boosters since 2024, establishing precision guidance and arm hardware, while Starship upper stages have achieved progressively softer splashdowns, including Ship 40’s precise July 2026 landing on Flight 13 that Elon Musk stated would have been catchable. Recent September 2026 rehearsals at Pad 2 lifted Ship 42 (Flight 15 vehicle) into the chopsticks for alignment, pusher, and Ship Quick Disconnect tests, signaling active preparation for an orbital-class catch attempt distinct from booster operations due to higher reentry speeds and aerodynamics. Flight 14, targeting late September with Ship 41 for Starlink V3 deployment, remains the near-term catalyst, though regulatory approval and post-flight data reviews could shift the first ship-catch window into October or beyond. Trader-implied odds reflect rapid iteration patterns once initial attempts begin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre 2026
6%
31 octobre 2026
51%
$1,995 Vol.
30 septembre 2026
$102 Vol.
6%
31 octobre 2026
$12 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX has validated Mechazilla tower catches with multiple Super Heavy boosters since 2024, establishing precision guidance and arm hardware, while Starship upper stages have achieved progressively softer splashdowns, including Ship 40’s precise July 2026 landing on Flight 13 that Elon Musk stated would have been catchable. Recent September 2026 rehearsals at Pad 2 lifted Ship 42 (Flight 15 vehicle) into the chopsticks for alignment, pusher, and Ship Quick Disconnect tests, signaling active preparation for an orbital-class catch attempt distinct from booster operations due to higher reentry speeds and aerodynamics. Flight 14, targeting late September with Ship 41 for Starlink V3 deployment, remains the near-term catalyst, though regulatory approval and post-flight data reviews could shift the first ship-catch window into October or beyond. Trader-implied odds reflect rapid iteration patterns once initial attempts begin.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Marché ouvert : Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
Volume
$1,995Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX has validated Mechazilla tower catches with multiple Super Heavy boosters since 2024, establishing precision guidance and arm hardware, while Starship upper stages have achieved progressively softer splashdowns, including Ship 40’s precise July 2026 landing on Flight 13 that Elon Musk stated would have been catchable. Recent September 2026 rehearsals at Pad 2 lifted Ship 42 (Flight 15 vehicle) into the chopsticks for alignment, pusher, and Ship Quick Disconnect tests, signaling active preparation for an orbital-class catch attempt distinct from booster operations due to higher reentry speeds and aerodynamics. Flight 14, targeting late September with Ship 41 for Starlink V3 deployment, remains the near-term catalyst, though regulatory approval and post-flight data reviews could shift the first ship-catch window into October or beyond. Trader-implied odds reflect rapid iteration patterns once initial attempts begin.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Volume
$1,995Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...SpaceX has validated Mechazilla tower catches with multiple Super Heavy boosters since 2024, establishing precision guidance and arm hardware, while Starship upper stages have achieved progressively softer splashdowns, including Ship 40’s precise July 2026 landing on Flight 13 that Elon Musk stated would have been catchable. Recent September 2026 rehearsals at Pad 2 lifted Ship 42 (Flight 15 vehicle) into the chopsticks for alignment, pusher, and Ship Quick Disconnect tests, signaling active preparation for an orbital-class catch attempt distinct from booster operations due to higher reentry speeds and aerodynamics. Flight 14, targeting late September with Ship 41 for Starlink V3 deployment, remains the near-term catalyst, though regulatory approval and post-flight data reviews could shift the first ship-catch window into October or beyond. Trader-implied odds reflect rapid iteration patterns once initial attempts begin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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