Renan Santos leads the market for third place in Brazil’s October 4 first round because traders see his social-media reach and appeal among younger voters as likely to deliver the strongest showing among the fragmented field behind frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent national polls place Santos in the 3–5 percent range, competitive with or slightly behind Augusto Cury, whose late-August surge to 6–11 percent followed a televised debate and high-profile interview that boosted visibility for the Avante candidate. Ronaldo Caiado, a former Goiás governor backed by the PSD, registers similar single-digit support but trails in most surveys and market pricing. Minor candidates such as Romeu Zema remain marginal. With the vote less than two weeks away, the contest for third hinges on turnout among non-polarized or protest voters and any final debate performances.