Lula holds the strongest position among candidates seeking first place in Amazonas during the October 4 first round, with trader consensus at 71.5% reflecting consistent polling leads in the state. Recent surveys, including those from Quaest and Real Time Big Data in August, show Lula at 38-40% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 35-39%, with the president drawing decisive support from interior municipalities that offset closer results in Manaus. Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 27.5% in the market, consistent with his narrower base in the capital and limited gains elsewhere. Other listed candidates register minimal shares below 6% in state-level data, aligning with their low market pricing. National trends and Lula's May visit to the region have reinforced this positioning ahead of the vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLula 72%
Flavio Bolsonaro 28%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$26,838 Vol.
$26,838 Vol.
Lula
72%
Flavio Bolsonaro
28%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 72%
Flavio Bolsonaro 28%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$26,838 Vol.
$26,838 Vol.
Lula
72%
Flavio Bolsonaro
28%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds the strongest position among candidates seeking first place in Amazonas during the October 4 first round, with trader consensus at 71.5% reflecting consistent polling leads in the state. Recent surveys, including those from Quaest and Real Time Big Data in August, show Lula at 38-40% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 35-39%, with the president drawing decisive support from interior municipalities that offset closer results in Manaus. Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 27.5% in the market, consistent with his narrower base in the capital and limited gains elsewhere. Other listed candidates register minimal shares below 6% in state-level data, aligning with their low market pricing. National trends and Lula's May visit to the region have reinforced this positioning ahead of the vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Lula remportera-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil dans le Pará ?
Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil en Paraíba ?
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