Elevated global energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions have kept Canadian headline CPI near 3% through August 2026, lifting upside inflation risks and driving the 42% market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the October 28 Bank of Canada meeting. This sits just behind the 55.5% probability of no change, as core measures such as CPI-trim and median remain anchored near the 2% target with limited pass-through evident so far. U.S. tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on growth prospects, tempering trader enthusiasm for immediate tightening despite some economist calls for “insurance” hikes. The October Monetary Policy Report and September CPI release on October 19 will provide key updates for the data-dependent Governing Council.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun changement 52.9%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 41.9%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
$99,832 Vol.
$99,832 Vol.
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
42%
Aucun changement
53%
Baisse de 25 points de base
<1%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Aucun changement 52.9%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 41.9%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
$99,832 Vol.
$99,832 Vol.
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
42%
Aucun changement
53%
Baisse de 25 points de base
<1%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Elevated global energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions have kept Canadian headline CPI near 3% through August 2026, lifting upside inflation risks and driving the 42% market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the October 28 Bank of Canada meeting. This sits just behind the 55.5% probability of no change, as core measures such as CPI-trim and median remain anchored near the 2% target with limited pass-through evident so far. U.S. tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on growth prospects, tempering trader enthusiasm for immediate tightening despite some economist calls for “insurance” hikes. The October Monetary Policy Report and September CPI release on October 19 will provide key updates for the data-dependent Governing Council.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour



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