Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ around 23% support and a mean of roughly 21 seats in the October 5 election, with wide ranges reflecting Quebec’s fragmented five-party contest and numerous tight ridings. The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead near 29%, while the CAQ trails or ties the Liberals and faces rising Conservative competition, particularly outside Montreal. Incumbent retirements, regional vote efficiency differences, and late-campaign volatility contribute to the broad distribution of possible outcomes. Trader pricing places the highest probability on 30+ seats, consistent with models showing potential upside in CAQ strongholds if turnout or undecided voters shift in its favor before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour30 + 36%
20-24 24%
<5 15.6%
5-9 13.5%
$20,574 Vol.
$20,574 Vol.
5 oct. 2026
<5
11%
5-9
13%
10-14
8%
15-19
5%
20-24
24%
25-29
11%
30 +
36%
30 + 36%
20-24 24%
<5 15.6%
5-9 13.5%
$20,574 Vol.
$20,574 Vol.
5 oct. 2026
<5
$1,410 Vol.
11%
5-9
$1,984 Vol.
13%
10-14
$3,537 Vol.
8%
15-19
$1,896 Vol.
5%
20-24
$3,556 Vol.
24%
25-29
$1,794 Vol.
11%
30 +
$6,396 Vol.
36%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ around 23% support and a mean of roughly 21 seats in the October 5 election, with wide ranges reflecting Quebec’s fragmented five-party contest and numerous tight ridings. The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead near 29%, while the CAQ trails or ties the Liberals and faces rising Conservative competition, particularly outside Montreal. Incumbent retirements, regional vote efficiency differences, and late-campaign volatility contribute to the broad distribution of possible outcomes. Trader pricing places the highest probability on 30+ seats, consistent with models showing potential upside in CAQ strongholds if turnout or undecided voters shift in its favor before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Marché ouvert : Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$20,574Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ around 23% support and a mean of roughly 21 seats in the October 5 election, with wide ranges reflecting Quebec’s fragmented five-party contest and numerous tight ridings. The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead near 29%, while the CAQ trails or ties the Liberals and faces rising Conservative competition, particularly outside Montreal. Incumbent retirements, regional vote efficiency differences, and late-campaign volatility contribute to the broad distribution of possible outcomes. Trader pricing places the highest probability on 30+ seats, consistent with models showing potential upside in CAQ strongholds if turnout or undecided voters shift in its favor before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$20,574Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ around 23% support and a mean of roughly 21 seats in the October 5 election, with wide ranges reflecting Quebec’s fragmented five-party contest and numerous tight ridings. The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead near 29%, while the CAQ trails or ties the Liberals and faces rising Conservative competition, particularly outside Montreal. Incumbent retirements, regional vote efficiency differences, and late-campaign volatility contribute to the broad distribution of possible outcomes. Trader pricing places the highest probability on 30+ seats, consistent with models showing potential upside in CAQ strongholds if turnout or undecided voters shift in its favor before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le PCQ remportera-t-il 8 à 10 sièges à l’Assemblée nationale du Québec lors de cette élection ?
24%
Oui
Le PQ remportera-t-il moins de 50 sièges à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec lors de cette élection ?
41%
Oui
Le PLQ remportera-t-il 28 à 31 sièges à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec lors de cette élection ?
36%
Oui
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