**Record global temperatures in August 2026, confirmed at 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline by Copernicus ERA5 data released September 10, have driven near-certain trader consensus (>1.29°C at 99.4% implied probability).** Human-driven warming combined with a strengthening super El Niño produced the joint-warmest month on record (tied with July 2023 at 16.96°C), with extra-polar ocean temperatures also hitting new highs. This margin far exceeds lower bins, reflecting verified observational data rather than models. Revisions to the anomaly or use of an alternate dataset could theoretically shift resolution, though the scale of the observed spike makes such outcomes improbable absent major methodological changes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAoût 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
Août 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
>1,29ºC 99.4%
1,20–1,24ºC <1%
1,25–1,29ºC <1%
<1,10ºC <1%
$14,173 Vol.
$14,173 Vol.
31 juil. 2026
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
<1%
1,15–1,19ºC
<1%
1,20–1,24ºC
1%
1,25–1,29ºC
1%
>1,29ºC
99%
>1,29ºC 99.4%
1,20–1,24ºC <1%
1,25–1,29ºC <1%
<1,10ºC <1%
$14,173 Vol.
$14,173 Vol.
31 juil. 2026
<1,10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1,15–1,19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1,20–1,24ºC
$2,099 Vol.
1%
1,25–1,29ºC
$2,783 Vol.
1%
>1,29ºC
$6,294 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Record global temperatures in August 2026, confirmed at 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline by Copernicus ERA5 data released September 10, have driven near-certain trader consensus (>1.29°C at 99.4% implied probability).** Human-driven warming combined with a strengthening super El Niño produced the joint-warmest month on record (tied with July 2023 at 16.96°C), with extra-polar ocean temperatures also hitting new highs. This margin far exceeds lower bins, reflecting verified observational data rather than models. Revisions to the anomaly or use of an alternate dataset could theoretically shift resolution, though the scale of the observed spike makes such outcomes improbable absent major methodological changes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,173Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Record global temperatures in August 2026, confirmed at 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline by Copernicus ERA5 data released September 10, have driven near-certain trader consensus (>1.29°C at 99.4% implied probability).** Human-driven warming combined with a strengthening super El Niño produced the joint-warmest month on record (tied with July 2023 at 16.96°C), with extra-polar ocean temperatures also hitting new highs. This margin far exceeds lower bins, reflecting verified observational data rather than models. Revisions to the anomaly or use of an alternate dataset could theoretically shift resolution, though the scale of the observed spike makes such outcomes improbable absent major methodological changes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,173Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Record global temperatures in August 2026, confirmed at 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline by Copernicus ERA5 data released September 10, have driven near-certain trader consensus (>1.29°C at 99.4% implied probability).** Human-driven warming combined with a strengthening super El Niño produced the joint-warmest month on record (tied with July 2023 at 16.96°C), with extra-polar ocean temperatures also hitting new highs. This margin far exceeds lower bins, reflecting verified observational data rather than models. Revisions to the anomaly or use of an alternate dataset could theoretically shift resolution, though the scale of the observed spike makes such outcomes improbable absent major methodological changes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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