Recent analyses from Copernicus, NOAA, and ECMWF show September 2026 tracking toward a global mean near 16.25 °C through the final third of the month, comfortably above the prior September record but roughly 0.7 °C below August 2026’s 16.96 °C mark—the joint-highest monthly value on record alongside July 2023. Sustained record sea-surface temperatures outside the polar regions, driven by a strengthening El Niño superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, underpin this positioning, with Northern Hemisphere land areas also running exceptionally warm. The large gap relative to all other historical months makes a second-place finish the clear market-implied outcome. Only an unprecedented late-month cooling well beyond current ensemble guidance or major revisions to the ERA5 or similar datasets would realistically alter that ranking.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSeptembre 2026 1er, 2ème ou 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
Septembre 2026 1er, 2ème ou 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
Deuxième plus chaud 96.8%
Le plus chaud 2.3%
4e ou plus bas 2.0%
3e plus chaud <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
Le plus chaud
2%
Deuxième plus chaud
97%
3e plus chaud
1%
4e ou plus bas
2%
Deuxième plus chaud 96.8%
Le plus chaud 2.3%
4e ou plus bas 2.0%
3e plus chaud <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
Le plus chaud
$1,410 Vol.
2%
Deuxième plus chaud
$1,072 Vol.
97%
3e plus chaud
$893 Vol.
1%
4e ou plus bas
$958 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent analyses from Copernicus, NOAA, and ECMWF show September 2026 tracking toward a global mean near 16.25 °C through the final third of the month, comfortably above the prior September record but roughly 0.7 °C below August 2026’s 16.96 °C mark—the joint-highest monthly value on record alongside July 2023. Sustained record sea-surface temperatures outside the polar regions, driven by a strengthening El Niño superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, underpin this positioning, with Northern Hemisphere land areas also running exceptionally warm. The large gap relative to all other historical months makes a second-place finish the clear market-implied outcome. Only an unprecedented late-month cooling well beyond current ensemble guidance or major revisions to the ERA5 or similar datasets would realistically alter that ranking.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$4,334Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent analyses from Copernicus, NOAA, and ECMWF show September 2026 tracking toward a global mean near 16.25 °C through the final third of the month, comfortably above the prior September record but roughly 0.7 °C below August 2026’s 16.96 °C mark—the joint-highest monthly value on record alongside July 2023. Sustained record sea-surface temperatures outside the polar regions, driven by a strengthening El Niño superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, underpin this positioning, with Northern Hemisphere land areas also running exceptionally warm. The large gap relative to all other historical months makes a second-place finish the clear market-implied outcome. Only an unprecedented late-month cooling well beyond current ensemble guidance or major revisions to the ERA5 or similar datasets would realistically alter that ranking.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$4,334Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent analyses from Copernicus, NOAA, and ECMWF show September 2026 tracking toward a global mean near 16.25 °C through the final third of the month, comfortably above the prior September record but roughly 0.7 °C below August 2026’s 16.96 °C mark—the joint-highest monthly value on record alongside July 2023. Sustained record sea-surface temperatures outside the polar regions, driven by a strengthening El Niño superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, underpin this positioning, with Northern Hemisphere land areas also running exceptionally warm. The large gap relative to all other historical months makes a second-place finish the clear market-implied outcome. Only an unprecedented late-month cooling well beyond current ensemble guidance or major revisions to the ERA5 or similar datasets would realistically alter that ranking.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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