Trader consensus assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a highest 2026 magnitude of 7.9 or below, reflecting the absence of any USGS-recorded event exceeding 7.8 through early September. The year's strongest quakes—offshore Mindanao (7.8, June) and Flores, Indonesia (7.8, August)—remain below the typical annual occurrence of one magnitude 8.0+, while recent activity has stayed modest, with peaks near 6.3 in Alaska. Historical patterns show magnitude 8+ events cluster irregularly, and the remaining months introduce uncertainty around subduction-zone activity, yet current seismic data and model baselines support the market's strong lean toward no record-setting rupture.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa plus grande magnitude de tremblement de terre en 2026 ?
La plus grande magnitude de tremblement de terre en 2026 ?
7,9 ou moins 75%
8,0 – 8,1 9%
8,2–8,3 5.0%
8,6 – 8,7 4.5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 janv. 2027
7,9 ou moins
75%
8,0 – 8,1
9%
8,2–8,3
5%
8,4 – 8,5
3%
8,6 – 8,7
5%
8,8 – 8,9
1%
9,0 ou plus
3%
7,9 ou moins 75%
8,0 – 8,1 9%
8,2–8,3 5.0%
8,6 – 8,7 4.5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 janv. 2027
7,9 ou moins
$2,353 Vol.
75%
8,0 – 8,1
$562 Vol.
9%
8,2–8,3
$331 Vol.
5%
8,4 – 8,5
$201 Vol.
3%
8,6 – 8,7
$306 Vol.
5%
8,8 – 8,9
$203 Vol.
1%
9,0 ou plus
$156 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a highest 2026 magnitude of 7.9 or below, reflecting the absence of any USGS-recorded event exceeding 7.8 through early September. The year's strongest quakes—offshore Mindanao (7.8, June) and Flores, Indonesia (7.8, August)—remain below the typical annual occurrence of one magnitude 8.0+, while recent activity has stayed modest, with peaks near 6.3 in Alaska. Historical patterns show magnitude 8+ events cluster irregularly, and the remaining months introduce uncertainty around subduction-zone activity, yet current seismic data and model baselines support the market's strong lean toward no record-setting rupture.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Volume
$4,111Date de fin
4 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a highest 2026 magnitude of 7.9 or below, reflecting the absence of any USGS-recorded event exceeding 7.8 through early September. The year's strongest quakes—offshore Mindanao (7.8, June) and Flores, Indonesia (7.8, August)—remain below the typical annual occurrence of one magnitude 8.0+, while recent activity has stayed modest, with peaks near 6.3 in Alaska. Historical patterns show magnitude 8+ events cluster irregularly, and the remaining months introduce uncertainty around subduction-zone activity, yet current seismic data and model baselines support the market's strong lean toward no record-setting rupture.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$4,111Date de fin
4 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a highest 2026 magnitude of 7.9 or below, reflecting the absence of any USGS-recorded event exceeding 7.8 through early September. The year's strongest quakes—offshore Mindanao (7.8, June) and Flores, Indonesia (7.8, August)—remain below the typical annual occurrence of one magnitude 8.0+, while recent activity has stayed modest, with peaks near 6.3 in Alaska. Historical patterns show magnitude 8+ events cluster irregularly, and the remaining months introduce uncertainty around subduction-zone activity, yet current seismic data and model baselines support the market's strong lean toward no record-setting rupture.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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