**No at 87.5%** reflects the absence of any qualifying events through mid-September 2026 and the low historical frequency of the specific thresholds required for a Yes resolution. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded. Official monitoring from the USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program confirms recent activity—such as 7.4–7.7 quakes in Colombia and Indonesia, European and Asian heatwaves, and the Nepal glacial flood—has remained below these cutoffs. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological baselines indicating limited remaining windows for such rare extremes, trader consensus prices the probability of hitting any single criterion as modest. Upcoming NHC seasonal outlooks and USGS seismic updates could still shift odds if conditions align.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCatastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Catastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Oui
13% chance
$246,041 Vol.
$246,041 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
13% chance
$246,041 Vol.
$246,041 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No at 87.5%** reflects the absence of any qualifying events through mid-September 2026 and the low historical frequency of the specific thresholds required for a Yes resolution. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded. Official monitoring from the USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program confirms recent activity—such as 7.4–7.7 quakes in Colombia and Indonesia, European and Asian heatwaves, and the Nepal glacial flood—has remained below these cutoffs. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological baselines indicating limited remaining windows for such rare extremes, trader consensus prices the probability of hitting any single criterion as modest. Upcoming NHC seasonal outlooks and USGS seismic updates could still shift odds if conditions align.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$246,041Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No at 87.5%** reflects the absence of any qualifying events through mid-September 2026 and the low historical frequency of the specific thresholds required for a Yes resolution. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded. Official monitoring from the USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program confirms recent activity—such as 7.4–7.7 quakes in Colombia and Indonesia, European and Asian heatwaves, and the Nepal glacial flood—has remained below these cutoffs. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological baselines indicating limited remaining windows for such rare extremes, trader consensus prices the probability of hitting any single criterion as modest. Upcoming NHC seasonal outlooks and USGS seismic updates could still shift odds if conditions align.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$246,041Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**No at 87.5%** reflects the absence of any qualifying events through mid-September 2026 and the low historical frequency of the specific thresholds required for a Yes resolution. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded. Official monitoring from the USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program confirms recent activity—such as 7.4–7.7 quakes in Colombia and Indonesia, European and Asian heatwaves, and the Nepal glacial flood—has remained below these cutoffs. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological baselines indicating limited remaining windows for such rare extremes, trader consensus prices the probability of hitting any single criterion as modest. Upcoming NHC seasonal outlooks and USGS seismic updates could still shift odds if conditions align.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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