**Trader consensus in the Hong Kong September precipitation market strongly favors totals below the 321 mm climatological mean, with the <275 mm bin leading at 73.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects early-month conditions under persistent northeast monsoon flow, which has delivered mostly fine weather with only isolated showers through mid-September. Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate continued dry-to-moderate conditions into the coming week, limiting accumulation despite typical seasonal risks from tropical systems. Historical variability is high, driven by cyclone frequency and steering patterns over the northern South China Sea, yet current model runs show limited development potential near the territory. Traders are weighting the subdued start and subdued near-term outlook heavily, while watching for any late-month low-pressure systems or revised intensity forecasts that could alter totals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPrécipitations à Hong Kong en septembre ?
Précipitations à Hong Kong en septembre ?
<275mm 74%
275-300mm 14%
300-325mm 7.2%
550mm+ 6.0%
$13,749 Vol.
$13,749 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
<275mm
74%
275-300mm
14%
300-325mm
7%
325-350mm
3%
350-375mm
3%
375-400mm
4%
400-450mm
3%
450-500mm
1%
500-550mm
2%
550mm+
6%
<275mm 74%
275-300mm 14%
300-325mm 7.2%
550mm+ 6.0%
$13,749 Vol.
$13,749 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
<275mm
$11,104 Vol.
74%
275-300mm
$400 Vol.
14%
300-325mm
$458 Vol.
7%
325-350mm
$333 Vol.
3%
350-375mm
$220 Vol.
3%
375-400mm
$239 Vol.
4%
400-450mm
$235 Vol.
3%
450-500mm
$260 Vol.
1%
500-550mm
$241 Vol.
2%
550mm+
$258 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus in the Hong Kong September precipitation market strongly favors totals below the 321 mm climatological mean, with the <275 mm bin leading at 73.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects early-month conditions under persistent northeast monsoon flow, which has delivered mostly fine weather with only isolated showers through mid-September. Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate continued dry-to-moderate conditions into the coming week, limiting accumulation despite typical seasonal risks from tropical systems. Historical variability is high, driven by cyclone frequency and steering patterns over the northern South China Sea, yet current model runs show limited development potential near the territory. Traders are weighting the subdued start and subdued near-term outlook heavily, while watching for any late-month low-pressure systems or revised intensity forecasts that could alter totals.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volume
$13,749Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus in the Hong Kong September precipitation market strongly favors totals below the 321 mm climatological mean, with the <275 mm bin leading at 73.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects early-month conditions under persistent northeast monsoon flow, which has delivered mostly fine weather with only isolated showers through mid-September. Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate continued dry-to-moderate conditions into the coming week, limiting accumulation despite typical seasonal risks from tropical systems. Historical variability is high, driven by cyclone frequency and steering patterns over the northern South China Sea, yet current model runs show limited development potential near the territory. Traders are weighting the subdued start and subdued near-term outlook heavily, while watching for any late-month low-pressure systems or revised intensity forecasts that could alter totals.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,749Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus in the Hong Kong September precipitation market strongly favors totals below the 321 mm climatological mean, with the <275 mm bin leading at 73.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects early-month conditions under persistent northeast monsoon flow, which has delivered mostly fine weather with only isolated showers through mid-September. Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate continued dry-to-moderate conditions into the coming week, limiting accumulation despite typical seasonal risks from tropical systems. Historical variability is high, driven by cyclone frequency and steering patterns over the northern South China Sea, yet current model runs show limited development potential near the territory. Traders are weighting the subdued start and subdued near-term outlook heavily, while watching for any late-month low-pressure systems or revised intensity forecasts that could alter totals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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