Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding lead in the AR-01 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+23 partisan voter index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and both major-party primaries were uncontested. Crawford’s substantial fundraising advantage and long tenure further reinforce trader consensus, while Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, has raised limited funds and faces structural barriers in this northeast Arkansas district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include late-breaking scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political realignment boosting Democratic turnout, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions ahead of the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAR-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
AR-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$26,590 Vol.
$26,590 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Rick Crawford (R)
97%
Terri Green (D)
1%
$26,590 Vol.
$26,590 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Rick Crawford (R)
$16,331 Vol.
97%
Terri Green (D)
$10,259 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding lead in the AR-01 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+23 partisan voter index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and both major-party primaries were uncontested. Crawford’s substantial fundraising advantage and long tenure further reinforce trader consensus, while Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, has raised limited funds and faces structural barriers in this northeast Arkansas district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include late-breaking scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political realignment boosting Democratic turnout, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$26,590Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding lead in the AR-01 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+23 partisan voter index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and both major-party primaries were uncontested. Crawford’s substantial fundraising advantage and long tenure further reinforce trader consensus, while Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, has raised limited funds and faces structural barriers in this northeast Arkansas district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include late-breaking scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political realignment boosting Democratic turnout, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,590Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding lead in the AR-01 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+23 partisan voter index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and both major-party primaries were uncontested. Crawford’s substantial fundraising advantage and long tenure further reinforce trader consensus, while Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, has raised limited funds and faces structural barriers in this northeast Arkansas district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include late-breaking scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political realignment boosting Democratic turnout, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions ahead of the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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