Extensive NASA and ESA near-Earth object surveys, including continuous monitoring via CNEOS fireball data and Sentry risk assessments, have identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering a 1-megaton impact in 2026, underpinning the 98.6% market-implied odds on No. Decades of orbital tracking and statistical flux models place events of this scale at roughly once per several centuries to millennia, with no credible detections or close approaches meeting the energy threshold this year. While small meteoroids continue to enter the atmosphere regularly, none approach the required yield. Realistic tail risks include a previously undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculation, though both face high observational barriers given current telescope coverage and would require rapid confirmation before December 31 to alter resolution.