Martial law in Ukraine, extended repeatedly by parliament and currently through October 31, 2026, bars presidential elections under existing law, allowing incumbent Volodymyr Zelenskyy to retain office beyond his original 2019 term expiration in line with constitutional continuity provisions. Zelenskyy has publicly stated readiness to hold elections promptly if security and logistical conditions permit but emphasized that active hostilities, millions of displaced voters abroad, and occupied territories preclude this. Recent 90-day extensions and the absence of a ceasefire sustain these barriers, while polling reflects domestic dissatisfaction without triggering removal mechanisms. Traders price the low probability of departure by end-2026 around the persistence of wartime governance structures and limited near-term paths to succession.