The active conflict with Russia remains the dominant barrier to Ukraine’s NATO accession before 2027, as alliance members have consistently conditioned full membership on the cessation of hostilities to avoid triggering Article 5 obligations. The July 2026 Ankara Summit produced major aid commitments and recognized Ukraine as a security contributor, yet delivered no invitation or accelerated accession track, consistent with the one-step process established in Vilnius. Unanimous ratification among 32 allies faces persistent procedural and political hurdles, while Ukrainian officials and former commanders have publicly noted gaps in interoperability and standards. With roughly three months left in the resolution window, the timeline precludes completing required reforms and votes. A rapid ceasefire enabling sudden diplomatic consensus could theoretically shift outcomes, though such developments face substantial geopolitical and institutional constraints.