Recent US diplomatic efforts, including envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's September 2026 visits to Moscow and Kyiv, have produced only an agreement to resume trilateral talks without narrowing core gaps on territory, security guarantees, or military limits. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas, constitutional changes, and recognition of annexed regions, while rejecting proposals such as an air truce and maintaining battlefield pressure through strikes. Ukrainian officials have ruled out unilateral concessions that could invite further aggression, seeking robust Western-backed guarantees instead. These entrenched positions, following stalled earlier rounds in early 2026, sustain trader expectations that a comprehensive signed peace agreement remains unlikely before the 2027 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated11% chance
$2,713,639 Vol.
$2,713,639 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
11% chance
$2,713,639 Vol.
$2,713,639 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent US diplomatic efforts, including envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's September 2026 visits to Moscow and Kyiv, have produced only an agreement to resume trilateral talks without narrowing core gaps on territory, security guarantees, or military limits. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas, constitutional changes, and recognition of annexed regions, while rejecting proposals such as an air truce and maintaining battlefield pressure through strikes. Ukrainian officials have ruled out unilateral concessions that could invite further aggression, seeking robust Western-backed guarantees instead. These entrenched positions, following stalled earlier rounds in early 2026, sustain trader expectations that a comprehensive signed peace agreement remains unlikely before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,713,639End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent US diplomatic efforts, including envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's September 2026 visits to Moscow and Kyiv, have produced only an agreement to resume trilateral talks without narrowing core gaps on territory, security guarantees, or military limits. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas, constitutional changes, and recognition of annexed regions, while rejecting proposals such as an air truce and maintaining battlefield pressure through strikes. Ukrainian officials have ruled out unilateral concessions that could invite further aggression, seeking robust Western-backed guarantees instead. These entrenched positions, following stalled earlier rounds in early 2026, sustain trader expectations that a comprehensive signed peace agreement remains unlikely before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,713,639End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US diplomatic efforts, including envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's September 2026 visits to Moscow and Kyiv, have produced only an agreement to resume trilateral talks without narrowing core gaps on territory, security guarantees, or military limits. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas, constitutional changes, and recognition of annexed regions, while rejecting proposals such as an air truce and maintaining battlefield pressure through strikes. Ukrainian officials have ruled out unilateral concessions that could invite further aggression, seeking robust Western-backed guarantees instead. These entrenched positions, following stalled earlier rounds in early 2026, sustain trader expectations that a comprehensive signed peace agreement remains unlikely before the 2027 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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