Putin's regime has maintained firm control over Russia's security apparatus and political institutions through 2026, with State Duma elections proceeding on schedule amid claims of external destabilization attempts. Recent elite infighting, including the ouster of FSB Economic Security Service head Sergei Alpatov and reported tensions among security factions tied to figures like Arkady Rotenberg, reflects managed internal power struggles rather than organized opposition to the president. Ukrainian intelligence assessments note elite divisions over the Ukraine war and Putin's wariness of oligarchs, yet Russian analysts describe the system as stable and resilient, with no credible military or popular challenge emerging since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Trader consensus on low coup probability aligns with the absence of structural triggers for regime change before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia coup attempt in 2026?
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
6% chance
$131,224 Vol.
$131,224 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$131,224 Vol.
$131,224 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin's regime has maintained firm control over Russia's security apparatus and political institutions through 2026, with State Duma elections proceeding on schedule amid claims of external destabilization attempts. Recent elite infighting, including the ouster of FSB Economic Security Service head Sergei Alpatov and reported tensions among security factions tied to figures like Arkady Rotenberg, reflects managed internal power struggles rather than organized opposition to the president. Ukrainian intelligence assessments note elite divisions over the Ukraine war and Putin's wariness of oligarchs, yet Russian analysts describe the system as stable and resilient, with no credible military or popular challenge emerging since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Trader consensus on low coup probability aligns with the absence of structural triggers for regime change before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$131,224End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin's regime has maintained firm control over Russia's security apparatus and political institutions through 2026, with State Duma elections proceeding on schedule amid claims of external destabilization attempts. Recent elite infighting, including the ouster of FSB Economic Security Service head Sergei Alpatov and reported tensions among security factions tied to figures like Arkady Rotenberg, reflects managed internal power struggles rather than organized opposition to the president. Ukrainian intelligence assessments note elite divisions over the Ukraine war and Putin's wariness of oligarchs, yet Russian analysts describe the system as stable and resilient, with no credible military or popular challenge emerging since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Trader consensus on low coup probability aligns with the absence of structural triggers for regime change before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$131,224End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin's regime has maintained firm control over Russia's security apparatus and political institutions through 2026, with State Duma elections proceeding on schedule amid claims of external destabilization attempts. Recent elite infighting, including the ouster of FSB Economic Security Service head Sergei Alpatov and reported tensions among security factions tied to figures like Arkady Rotenberg, reflects managed internal power struggles rather than organized opposition to the president. Ukrainian intelligence assessments note elite divisions over the Ukraine war and Putin's wariness of oligarchs, yet Russian analysts describe the system as stable and resilient, with no credible military or popular challenge emerging since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Trader consensus on low coup probability aligns with the absence of structural triggers for regime change before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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