**Erdoğan remains firmly in office through the end of 2026, with trader consensus reflecting the absence of any scheduled election, constitutional removal process, or credible near-term challenge.** The next presidential vote is set for 2028, and his alliance lacks the parliamentary majority needed to call an early election or amend term limits. Recent months show continued consolidation: opposition figures including Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu face ongoing legal cases and imprisonment, while the main CHP party has fractured after court rulings ousted its leadership. Erdoğan has stayed active in public diplomacy, regional security statements, economic policy announcements, and the PKK peace process, with no verified reports of incapacitating health events or internal party moves to force an exit. Short-term removal would require an unforeseen rupture such as sudden incapacity or elite defection, scenarios markets currently price as low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
6% chance
$635,569 Vol.
$635,569 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Earn 3.25%
6% chance
$635,569 Vol.
$635,569 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Earn 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Erdoğan remains firmly in office through the end of 2026, with trader consensus reflecting the absence of any scheduled election, constitutional removal process, or credible near-term challenge.** The next presidential vote is set for 2028, and his alliance lacks the parliamentary majority needed to call an early election or amend term limits. Recent months show continued consolidation: opposition figures including Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu face ongoing legal cases and imprisonment, while the main CHP party has fractured after court rulings ousted its leadership. Erdoğan has stayed active in public diplomacy, regional security statements, economic policy announcements, and the PKK peace process, with no verified reports of incapacitating health events or internal party moves to force an exit. Short-term removal would require an unforeseen rupture such as sudden incapacity or elite defection, scenarios markets currently price as low-probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$635,569End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Erdoğan remains firmly in office through the end of 2026, with trader consensus reflecting the absence of any scheduled election, constitutional removal process, or credible near-term challenge.** The next presidential vote is set for 2028, and his alliance lacks the parliamentary majority needed to call an early election or amend term limits. Recent months show continued consolidation: opposition figures including Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu face ongoing legal cases and imprisonment, while the main CHP party has fractured after court rulings ousted its leadership. Erdoğan has stayed active in public diplomacy, regional security statements, economic policy announcements, and the PKK peace process, with no verified reports of incapacitating health events or internal party moves to force an exit. Short-term removal would require an unforeseen rupture such as sudden incapacity or elite defection, scenarios markets currently price as low-probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$635,569End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...**Erdoğan remains firmly in office through the end of 2026, with trader consensus reflecting the absence of any scheduled election, constitutional removal process, or credible near-term challenge.** The next presidential vote is set for 2028, and his alliance lacks the parliamentary majority needed to call an early election or amend term limits. Recent months show continued consolidation: opposition figures including Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu face ongoing legal cases and imprisonment, while the main CHP party has fractured after court rulings ousted its leadership. Erdoğan has stayed active in public diplomacy, regional security statements, economic policy announcements, and the PKK peace process, with no verified reports of incapacitating health events or internal party moves to force an exit. Short-term removal would require an unforeseen rupture such as sudden incapacity or elite defection, scenarios markets currently price as low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions