**Anthropic's strong position on LiveBench coding stems from recent benchmark updates showing its latest models, including Claude Fable 5.1 variants, posting the highest subcategory scores in code generation, completion, and related tasks.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, these releases have edged out OpenAI's o-series and GPT-5.x Codex models on contamination-resistant coding evaluations, aligning with the 88% implied probability. OpenAI trails at 8.9% amid competitive but lower coding-specific results in current snapshots, while other labs remain far behind due to narrower gaps in demonstrated agentic or specialized coding performance. With the September 30 resolution window approaching, traders are weighting Anthropic's recent capability gains and consistent leaderboard leads heavily, though minor updates or tiebreakers could still influence final standings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 87.9%
OpenAI 9.6%
SpaceXAI 1.4%
Meta <1%
$62,167 Vol.
$62,167 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
88%
OpenAI
10%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 87.9%
OpenAI 9.6%
SpaceXAI 1.4%
Meta <1%
$62,167 Vol.
$62,167 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$21,896 Vol.
88%
OpenAI
$20,318 Vol.
10%
SpaceXAI
$3,123 Vol.
1%
Meta
$3,162 Vol.
<1%
$378 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$777 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$791 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$517 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,144 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$838 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$810 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$860 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$886 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,293 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$811 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$912 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$428 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,096 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$937 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$839 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$348 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”**Anthropic's strong position on LiveBench coding stems from recent benchmark updates showing its latest models, including Claude Fable 5.1 variants, posting the highest subcategory scores in code generation, completion, and related tasks.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, these releases have edged out OpenAI's o-series and GPT-5.x Codex models on contamination-resistant coding evaluations, aligning with the 88% implied probability. OpenAI trails at 8.9% amid competitive but lower coding-specific results in current snapshots, while other labs remain far behind due to narrower gaps in demonstrated agentic or specialized coding performance. With the September 30 resolution window approaching, traders are weighting Anthropic's recent capability gains and consistent leaderboard leads heavily, though minor updates or tiebreakers could still influence final standings.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$62,167End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”**Anthropic's strong position on LiveBench coding stems from recent benchmark updates showing its latest models, including Claude Fable 5.1 variants, posting the highest subcategory scores in code generation, completion, and related tasks.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, these releases have edged out OpenAI's o-series and GPT-5.x Codex models on contamination-resistant coding evaluations, aligning with the 88% implied probability. OpenAI trails at 8.9% amid competitive but lower coding-specific results in current snapshots, while other labs remain far behind due to narrower gaps in demonstrated agentic or specialized coding performance. With the September 30 resolution window approaching, traders are weighting Anthropic's recent capability gains and consistent leaderboard leads heavily, though minor updates or tiebreakers could still influence final standings.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$62,167End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Anthropic's strong position on LiveBench coding stems from recent benchmark updates showing its latest models, including Claude Fable 5.1 variants, posting the highest subcategory scores in code generation, completion, and related tasks.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, these releases have edged out OpenAI's o-series and GPT-5.x Codex models on contamination-resistant coding evaluations, aligning with the 88% implied probability. OpenAI trails at 8.9% amid competitive but lower coding-specific results in current snapshots, while other labs remain far behind due to narrower gaps in demonstrated agentic or specialized coding performance. With the September 30 resolution window approaching, traders are weighting Anthropic's recent capability gains and consistent leaderboard leads heavily, though minor updates or tiebreakers could still influence final standings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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