US-Turkey talks on restoring Ankara’s participation in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program center on statutory requirements under the NDAA and CAATSA that Turkey must no longer possess its Russian S-400 system and provide credible assurances against future Russian air-defense acquisitions before any transfer or readmission can occur. The Trump administration has signaled openness through public statements at the July 2026 NATO summit in Ankara and subsequent Washington meetings, including positive assessments from congressional figures on a potential path forward, while advancing related engine exports for Turkey’s KAAN fighter. Turkish officials have expressed optimism about near-term resolution via options such as deactivation or third-country transfer of the S-400 batteries. Countervailing factors include bipartisan congressional resistance, opposition from Israel and Greece over regional military balance, and State Department confirmation that legal conditions remain unmet as of late July 2026. Ongoing bilateral working groups and any further high-level diplomacy could influence timelines for certification and program reintegration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$44,224 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
9%
June 30, 2027
20%
$44,224 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$32,489 Vol.
9%
June 30, 2027
$11,735 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US-Turkey talks on restoring Ankara’s participation in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program center on statutory requirements under the NDAA and CAATSA that Turkey must no longer possess its Russian S-400 system and provide credible assurances against future Russian air-defense acquisitions before any transfer or readmission can occur. The Trump administration has signaled openness through public statements at the July 2026 NATO summit in Ankara and subsequent Washington meetings, including positive assessments from congressional figures on a potential path forward, while advancing related engine exports for Turkey’s KAAN fighter. Turkish officials have expressed optimism about near-term resolution via options such as deactivation or third-country transfer of the S-400 batteries. Countervailing factors include bipartisan congressional resistance, opposition from Israel and Greece over regional military balance, and State Department confirmation that legal conditions remain unmet as of late July 2026. Ongoing bilateral working groups and any further high-level diplomacy could influence timelines for certification and program reintegration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$44,224End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US-Turkey talks on restoring Ankara’s participation in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program center on statutory requirements under the NDAA and CAATSA that Turkey must no longer possess its Russian S-400 system and provide credible assurances against future Russian air-defense acquisitions before any transfer or readmission can occur. The Trump administration has signaled openness through public statements at the July 2026 NATO summit in Ankara and subsequent Washington meetings, including positive assessments from congressional figures on a potential path forward, while advancing related engine exports for Turkey’s KAAN fighter. Turkish officials have expressed optimism about near-term resolution via options such as deactivation or third-country transfer of the S-400 batteries. Countervailing factors include bipartisan congressional resistance, opposition from Israel and Greece over regional military balance, and State Department confirmation that legal conditions remain unmet as of late July 2026. Ongoing bilateral working groups and any further high-level diplomacy could influence timelines for certification and program reintegration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$44,224End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Turkey talks on restoring Ankara’s participation in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program center on statutory requirements under the NDAA and CAATSA that Turkey must no longer possess its Russian S-400 system and provide credible assurances against future Russian air-defense acquisitions before any transfer or readmission can occur. The Trump administration has signaled openness through public statements at the July 2026 NATO summit in Ankara and subsequent Washington meetings, including positive assessments from congressional figures on a potential path forward, while advancing related engine exports for Turkey’s KAAN fighter. Turkish officials have expressed optimism about near-term resolution via options such as deactivation or third-country transfer of the S-400 batteries. Countervailing factors include bipartisan congressional resistance, opposition from Israel and Greece over regional military balance, and State Department confirmation that legal conditions remain unmet as of late July 2026. Ongoing bilateral working groups and any further high-level diplomacy could influence timelines for certification and program reintegration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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