A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.8°C in September 2026 and forecasts for a very strong peak later in the year, serves as the main driver pushing trader consensus toward the closely matched 1.35–1.39°C and 1.40–1.44°C buckets. Record-high sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, have already produced an August 2026 global anomaly of 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, the first such month since late 2025. Model spreads and the remaining days in September introduce meaningful uncertainty around final ERA5 values, while ENSO-driven heat release and potential short-term cooling from atmospheric patterns differentiate the narrow leading outcomes. Official updates from Copernicus and NOAA in coming weeks will refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.40–1.44ºC 43%
1.35–1.39ºC 42%
<1.30ºC 39%
1.45–1.49ºC 25%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
39%
1.30–1.34ºC
12%
1.35–1.39ºC
42%
1.40–1.44ºC
43%
1.45–1.49ºC
25%
>1.49ºC
11%
1.40–1.44ºC 43%
1.35–1.39ºC 42%
<1.30ºC 39%
1.45–1.49ºC 25%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$22 Vol.
39%
1.30–1.34ºC
$1,230 Vol.
12%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
42%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
43%
1.45–1.49ºC
$74 Vol.
25%
>1.49ºC
$80 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.8°C in September 2026 and forecasts for a very strong peak later in the year, serves as the main driver pushing trader consensus toward the closely matched 1.35–1.39°C and 1.40–1.44°C buckets. Record-high sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, have already produced an August 2026 global anomaly of 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, the first such month since late 2025. Model spreads and the remaining days in September introduce meaningful uncertainty around final ERA5 values, while ENSO-driven heat release and potential short-term cooling from atmospheric patterns differentiate the narrow leading outcomes. Official updates from Copernicus and NOAA in coming weeks will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$1,406End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.8°C in September 2026 and forecasts for a very strong peak later in the year, serves as the main driver pushing trader consensus toward the closely matched 1.35–1.39°C and 1.40–1.44°C buckets. Record-high sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, have already produced an August 2026 global anomaly of 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, the first such month since late 2025. Model spreads and the remaining days in September introduce meaningful uncertainty around final ERA5 values, while ENSO-driven heat release and potential short-term cooling from atmospheric patterns differentiate the narrow leading outcomes. Official updates from Copernicus and NOAA in coming weeks will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$1,406End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.8°C in September 2026 and forecasts for a very strong peak later in the year, serves as the main driver pushing trader consensus toward the closely matched 1.35–1.39°C and 1.40–1.44°C buckets. Record-high sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, have already produced an August 2026 global anomaly of 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, the first such month since late 2025. Model spreads and the remaining days in September introduce meaningful uncertainty around final ERA5 values, while ENSO-driven heat release and potential short-term cooling from atmospheric patterns differentiate the narrow leading outcomes. Official updates from Copernicus and NOAA in coming weeks will refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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