Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges of the People’s Liberation Army have removed multiple Central Military Commission members and over 100 senior officers since 2022, with major actions in late 2025 and January 2026 targeting figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. These moves, officially tied to discipline violations and loyalty concerns, have left a streamlined command structure under Xi’s direct oversight ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. Unverified rumors of plots or clashes circulated in early 2026 but lacked confirmation from credible reporting and were attributed to overseas sources. This sustained pattern of elite discipline and absence of organized dissent or visible fractures sustains trader consensus on a low probability of any qualifying coup attempt by year-end. Remote variables such as acute health events or abrupt realignments could still shift conditions before December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$155,397 Vol.
$155,397 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$155,397 Vol.
$155,397 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges of the People’s Liberation Army have removed multiple Central Military Commission members and over 100 senior officers since 2022, with major actions in late 2025 and January 2026 targeting figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. These moves, officially tied to discipline violations and loyalty concerns, have left a streamlined command structure under Xi’s direct oversight ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. Unverified rumors of plots or clashes circulated in early 2026 but lacked confirmation from credible reporting and were attributed to overseas sources. This sustained pattern of elite discipline and absence of organized dissent or visible fractures sustains trader consensus on a low probability of any qualifying coup attempt by year-end. Remote variables such as acute health events or abrupt realignments could still shift conditions before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$155,397End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges of the People’s Liberation Army have removed multiple Central Military Commission members and over 100 senior officers since 2022, with major actions in late 2025 and January 2026 targeting figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. These moves, officially tied to discipline violations and loyalty concerns, have left a streamlined command structure under Xi’s direct oversight ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. Unverified rumors of plots or clashes circulated in early 2026 but lacked confirmation from credible reporting and were attributed to overseas sources. This sustained pattern of elite discipline and absence of organized dissent or visible fractures sustains trader consensus on a low probability of any qualifying coup attempt by year-end. Remote variables such as acute health events or abrupt realignments could still shift conditions before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$155,397End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges of the People’s Liberation Army have removed multiple Central Military Commission members and over 100 senior officers since 2022, with major actions in late 2025 and January 2026 targeting figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. These moves, officially tied to discipline violations and loyalty concerns, have left a streamlined command structure under Xi’s direct oversight ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. Unverified rumors of plots or clashes circulated in early 2026 but lacked confirmation from credible reporting and were attributed to overseas sources. This sustained pattern of elite discipline and absence of organized dissent or visible fractures sustains trader consensus on a low probability of any qualifying coup attempt by year-end. Remote variables such as acute health events or abrupt realignments could still shift conditions before December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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