**Recent internal frictions in Ukraine’s security apparatus and political system have shaped trader views on the low probability of a coup attempt by year-end.** A September 3, 2026, shootout in Kyiv between rival intelligence units—the military’s HUR and the domestic SBU—highlighted power struggles during an arrest tied to an alleged Russian-linked plot, prompting President Zelensky to condemn the clash as shameful without evidence of broader overthrow efforts. Earlier 2026 developments, including July protests over defense leadership changes that forced cabinet adjustments and August anti-corruption probes reaching presidential office figures, have fueled speculation about elite divisions and calls for elections under martial law. These tensions reflect wartime strains on authority but have not produced verifiable coordinated challenges to government control, consistent with the market’s implied probability around 7-8% reflecting the absence of executed attempts amid ongoing consolidation. No major scheduled events appear positioned to immediately alter these dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$169,817 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
6%
$169,817 Vol.
December 31
$151,981 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Recent internal frictions in Ukraine’s security apparatus and political system have shaped trader views on the low probability of a coup attempt by year-end.** A September 3, 2026, shootout in Kyiv between rival intelligence units—the military’s HUR and the domestic SBU—highlighted power struggles during an arrest tied to an alleged Russian-linked plot, prompting President Zelensky to condemn the clash as shameful without evidence of broader overthrow efforts. Earlier 2026 developments, including July protests over defense leadership changes that forced cabinet adjustments and August anti-corruption probes reaching presidential office figures, have fueled speculation about elite divisions and calls for elections under martial law. These tensions reflect wartime strains on authority but have not produced verifiable coordinated challenges to government control, consistent with the market’s implied probability around 7-8% reflecting the absence of executed attempts amid ongoing consolidation. No major scheduled events appear positioned to immediately alter these dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$169,817End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Recent internal frictions in Ukraine’s security apparatus and political system have shaped trader views on the low probability of a coup attempt by year-end.** A September 3, 2026, shootout in Kyiv between rival intelligence units—the military’s HUR and the domestic SBU—highlighted power struggles during an arrest tied to an alleged Russian-linked plot, prompting President Zelensky to condemn the clash as shameful without evidence of broader overthrow efforts. Earlier 2026 developments, including July protests over defense leadership changes that forced cabinet adjustments and August anti-corruption probes reaching presidential office figures, have fueled speculation about elite divisions and calls for elections under martial law. These tensions reflect wartime strains on authority but have not produced verifiable coordinated challenges to government control, consistent with the market’s implied probability around 7-8% reflecting the absence of executed attempts amid ongoing consolidation. No major scheduled events appear positioned to immediately alter these dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$169,817End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent internal frictions in Ukraine’s security apparatus and political system have shaped trader views on the low probability of a coup attempt by year-end.** A September 3, 2026, shootout in Kyiv between rival intelligence units—the military’s HUR and the domestic SBU—highlighted power struggles during an arrest tied to an alleged Russian-linked plot, prompting President Zelensky to condemn the clash as shameful without evidence of broader overthrow efforts. Earlier 2026 developments, including July protests over defense leadership changes that forced cabinet adjustments and August anti-corruption probes reaching presidential office figures, have fueled speculation about elite divisions and calls for elections under martial law. These tensions reflect wartime strains on authority but have not produced verifiable coordinated challenges to government control, consistent with the market’s implied probability around 7-8% reflecting the absence of executed attempts amid ongoing consolidation. No major scheduled events appear positioned to immediately alter these dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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