Gregory Meeks, the longtime Democratic incumbent representing New York’s 5th congressional district in southeast Queens, holds a commanding position in the November 3, 2026 general election against Republican George Marsh. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+24 partisan voter index and Meeks’s 72.9% victory in 2024. Both primaries were uncontested after challengers withdrew, and Meeks maintains a substantial fundraising edge while Marsh has reported no receipts. The district’s consistent Democratic performance and Meeks’s long tenure as ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee reinforce trader consensus. A shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the structural Democratic advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-05 House Election Winner
NY-05 House Election Winner
$63,632 Vol.
$63,632 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Gregory Meeks (D)
97%
George Marsh (R)
1%
$63,632 Vol.
$63,632 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Gregory Meeks (D)
$21,390 Vol.
97%
George Marsh (R)
$42,241 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gregory Meeks, the longtime Democratic incumbent representing New York’s 5th congressional district in southeast Queens, holds a commanding position in the November 3, 2026 general election against Republican George Marsh. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+24 partisan voter index and Meeks’s 72.9% victory in 2024. Both primaries were uncontested after challengers withdrew, and Meeks maintains a substantial fundraising edge while Marsh has reported no receipts. The district’s consistent Democratic performance and Meeks’s long tenure as ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee reinforce trader consensus. A shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$63,632End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gregory Meeks, the longtime Democratic incumbent representing New York’s 5th congressional district in southeast Queens, holds a commanding position in the November 3, 2026 general election against Republican George Marsh. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+24 partisan voter index and Meeks’s 72.9% victory in 2024. Both primaries were uncontested after challengers withdrew, and Meeks maintains a substantial fundraising edge while Marsh has reported no receipts. The district’s consistent Democratic performance and Meeks’s long tenure as ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee reinforce trader consensus. A shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$63,632End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Gregory Meeks, the longtime Democratic incumbent representing New York’s 5th congressional district in southeast Queens, holds a commanding position in the November 3, 2026 general election against Republican George Marsh. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+24 partisan voter index and Meeks’s 72.9% victory in 2024. Both primaries were uncontested after challengers withdrew, and Meeks maintains a substantial fundraising edge while Marsh has reported no receipts. The district’s consistent Democratic performance and Meeks’s long tenure as ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee reinforce trader consensus. A shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the structural Democratic advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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