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icon for Next UK by-election called by…?
Politics·UK

Next UK by-election called by…?

icon for Next UK by-election called by…?
Politics·UK

Next UK by-election called by…?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Polymarket

$124 Vol.

Polymarket

October 31

$52 Vol.

18%

December 31

$72 Vol.

40%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Keir Starmer’s resignation from the House of Commons on 1 September 2026 created the most recent parliamentary vacancy, prompting the writ for a by-election in Holborn and St Pancras scheduled for 8 October. This follows Nigel Farage’s July resignation that triggered the Clacton contest held on 13 August, where he secured re-election amid limited major-party opposition. Earlier 2026 by-elections, including Makerfield, Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry in June, were driven by targeted resignations tied to leadership manoeuvres or party shifts. Trader focus on the timing or trigger of the next writ centres on potential further vacancies from Labour leadership changes, Reform UK internal dynamics, or Scottish constituency developments, with the standard 21-to-27 working-day timetable after a writ being moved setting expectations for any new contest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$124
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Keir Starmer’s resignation from the House of Commons on 1 September 2026 created the most recent parliamentary vacancy, prompting the writ for a by-election in Holborn and St Pancras scheduled for 8 October. This follows Nigel Farage’s July resignation that triggered the Clacton contest held on 13 August, where he secured re-election amid limited major-party opposition. Earlier 2026 by-elections, including Makerfield, Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry in June, were driven by targeted resignations tied to leadership manoeuvres or party shifts. Trader focus on the timing or trigger of the next writ centres on potential further vacancies from Labour leadership changes, Reform UK internal dynamics, or Scottish constituency developments, with the standard 21-to-27 working-day timetable after a writ being moved setting expectations for any new contest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$124
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next UK by-election called by…?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 40%, followed by "October 31" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next UK by-election called by…?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next UK by-election called by…?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next UK by-election called by…?" is "December 31" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "October 31" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next UK by-election called by…?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.