Anthropic’s release cadence for its flagship Claude Opus series has accelerated in 2026, with Opus 5 launching on July 24 after Opus 4.8 in late May, positioning the model as a cost-effective alternative to the more capable Fable 5 while leading on several coding and reasoning benchmarks. Recent leaks from X accounts on September 20 point to stealth testing of a claude-opus-5-5 variant under the codename claude-wafer-eap, with trader sentiment coalescing around an imminent launch window driven by the company’s pattern of short intervals between Opus updates and competitive pressure from peers. A September 1 release of Fable 5.1 further signals active iteration across the lineup, though Anthropic has issued no official confirmation or system card for the next Opus. Key near-term catalysts include any API identifier updates, model card publication, or announcements that would resolve the market’s tight clustering around late-September deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$237,163 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 20
1%
September 24
80%
September 27
90%
September 30
90%
October 31
96%
December 31
98%
$237,163 Vol.
September 20
$17,147 Vol.
1%
September 24
$22,418 Vol.
80%
September 27
$27,356 Vol.
90%
September 30
$96,262 Vol.
90%
October 31
$14,755 Vol.
96%
December 31
$5,283 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s release cadence for its flagship Claude Opus series has accelerated in 2026, with Opus 5 launching on July 24 after Opus 4.8 in late May, positioning the model as a cost-effective alternative to the more capable Fable 5 while leading on several coding and reasoning benchmarks. Recent leaks from X accounts on September 20 point to stealth testing of a claude-opus-5-5 variant under the codename claude-wafer-eap, with trader sentiment coalescing around an imminent launch window driven by the company’s pattern of short intervals between Opus updates and competitive pressure from peers. A September 1 release of Fable 5.1 further signals active iteration across the lineup, though Anthropic has issued no official confirmation or system card for the next Opus. Key near-term catalysts include any API identifier updates, model card publication, or announcements that would resolve the market’s tight clustering around late-September deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volume
$237,163End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s release cadence for its flagship Claude Opus series has accelerated in 2026, with Opus 5 launching on July 24 after Opus 4.8 in late May, positioning the model as a cost-effective alternative to the more capable Fable 5 while leading on several coding and reasoning benchmarks. Recent leaks from X accounts on September 20 point to stealth testing of a claude-opus-5-5 variant under the codename claude-wafer-eap, with trader sentiment coalescing around an imminent launch window driven by the company’s pattern of short intervals between Opus updates and competitive pressure from peers. A September 1 release of Fable 5.1 further signals active iteration across the lineup, though Anthropic has issued no official confirmation or system card for the next Opus. Key near-term catalysts include any API identifier updates, model card publication, or announcements that would resolve the market’s tight clustering around late-September deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$237,163End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s release cadence for its flagship Claude Opus series has accelerated in 2026, with Opus 5 launching on July 24 after Opus 4.8 in late May, positioning the model as a cost-effective alternative to the more capable Fable 5 while leading on several coding and reasoning benchmarks. Recent leaks from X accounts on September 20 point to stealth testing of a claude-opus-5-5 variant under the codename claude-wafer-eap, with trader sentiment coalescing around an imminent launch window driven by the company’s pattern of short intervals between Opus updates and competitive pressure from peers. A September 1 release of Fable 5.1 further signals active iteration across the lineup, though Anthropic has issued no official confirmation or system card for the next Opus. Key near-term catalysts include any API identifier updates, model card publication, or announcements that would resolve the market’s tight clustering around late-September deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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