Anthropic released Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026, positioning it as the most agentic Sonnet model to date with major gains in reasoning, tool use, coding, and autonomous task handling that approach Opus 4.8 performance at lower cost. This followed Sonnet 4.6 in February 2026 and reflected a roughly four-to-five-month cadence between recent mid-tier updates. Since then, the company has prioritized Opus 5 in July and specialized variants like Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 in early September, with no public statements or credible leaks signaling an imminent next Sonnet release. Traders are weighing this pattern against typical AI lab timelines, where product cycles can shift due to safety reviews, benchmark competition, or compute constraints, while noting upcoming developer events or earnings calls as potential catalysts for timeline clarity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext Claude Sonnet released by...?
Next Claude Sonnet released by...?
$15,271 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
22%
October 31
90%
December 31
97%
$15,271 Vol.
September 30
$835 Vol.
22%
October 31
$6,941 Vol.
90%
December 31
$3,757 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic released Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026, positioning it as the most agentic Sonnet model to date with major gains in reasoning, tool use, coding, and autonomous task handling that approach Opus 4.8 performance at lower cost. This followed Sonnet 4.6 in February 2026 and reflected a roughly four-to-five-month cadence between recent mid-tier updates. Since then, the company has prioritized Opus 5 in July and specialized variants like Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 in early September, with no public statements or credible leaks signaling an imminent next Sonnet release. Traders are weighing this pattern against typical AI lab timelines, where product cycles can shift due to safety reviews, benchmark competition, or compute constraints, while noting upcoming developer events or earnings calls as potential catalysts for timeline clarity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ET
Volume
$15,271End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic released Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026, positioning it as the most agentic Sonnet model to date with major gains in reasoning, tool use, coding, and autonomous task handling that approach Opus 4.8 performance at lower cost. This followed Sonnet 4.6 in February 2026 and reflected a roughly four-to-five-month cadence between recent mid-tier updates. Since then, the company has prioritized Opus 5 in July and specialized variants like Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 in early September, with no public statements or credible leaks signaling an imminent next Sonnet release. Traders are weighing this pattern against typical AI lab timelines, where product cycles can shift due to safety reviews, benchmark competition, or compute constraints, while noting upcoming developer events or earnings calls as potential catalysts for timeline clarity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$15,271End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic released Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026, positioning it as the most agentic Sonnet model to date with major gains in reasoning, tool use, coding, and autonomous task handling that approach Opus 4.8 performance at lower cost. This followed Sonnet 4.6 in February 2026 and reflected a roughly four-to-five-month cadence between recent mid-tier updates. Since then, the company has prioritized Opus 5 in July and specialized variants like Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 in early September, with no public statements or credible leaks signaling an imminent next Sonnet release. Traders are weighing this pattern against typical AI lab timelines, where product cycles can shift due to safety reviews, benchmark competition, or compute constraints, while noting upcoming developer events or earnings calls as potential catalysts for timeline clarity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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