Trader consensus favoring an 87.5% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through September. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral ENSO conditions, while USGS records confirm peak seismic events this year, including Venezuela’s doublet and Indonesia’s 7.7, have remained below the resolution threshold. Historical baselines indicate such extremes occur infrequently, and current model runs project limited intensification potential or major seismic shifts through year-end, though late-season hurricane activity or an unexpected large quake could still alter outcomes before December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
13% chance
$246,041 Vol.
$246,041 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
13% chance
$246,041 Vol.
$246,041 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring an 87.5% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through September. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral ENSO conditions, while USGS records confirm peak seismic events this year, including Venezuela’s doublet and Indonesia’s 7.7, have remained below the resolution threshold. Historical baselines indicate such extremes occur infrequently, and current model runs project limited intensification potential or major seismic shifts through year-end, though late-season hurricane activity or an unexpected large quake could still alter outcomes before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$246,041End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring an 87.5% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through September. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral ENSO conditions, while USGS records confirm peak seismic events this year, including Venezuela’s doublet and Indonesia’s 7.7, have remained below the resolution threshold. Historical baselines indicate such extremes occur infrequently, and current model runs project limited intensification potential or major seismic shifts through year-end, though late-season hurricane activity or an unexpected large quake could still alter outcomes before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$246,041End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring an 87.5% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through September. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral ENSO conditions, while USGS records confirm peak seismic events this year, including Venezuela’s doublet and Indonesia’s 7.7, have remained below the resolution threshold. Historical baselines indicate such extremes occur infrequently, and current model runs project limited intensification potential or major seismic shifts through year-end, though late-season hurricane activity or an unexpected large quake could still alter outcomes before December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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