Recent forecast model runs for Wellington reveal notable uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures on September 11, with some guidance favoring clear skies and radiational cooling under light southerly flow that could push lows toward 3–6°C, while others indicate stronger northwesterlies and increased cloud cover limiting drops to 8–11°C. This spread, typical for the region's variable spring conditions influenced by the Southern Ocean and Cook Strait, underpins the closely matched market-implied odds on extreme outcomes. Official monitoring from MetService and international ensembles will provide updated guidance ahead of resolution, highlighting how small shifts in wind direction or timing of any passing fronts can alter the lowest reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 11?
2°C or below 82%
12°C or higher 82%
4°C 38%
9°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
2°C or below
82%
3°C
18%
4°C
38%
5°C
22%
6°C
24%
7°C
22%
8°C
21%
9°C
38%
10°C
13%
11°C
14%
12°C or higher
82%
2°C or below 82%
12°C or higher 82%
4°C 38%
9°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
2°C or below
$0 Vol.
82%
3°C
$0 Vol.
18%
4°C
$0 Vol.
38%
5°C
$0 Vol.
22%
6°C
$0 Vol.
24%
7°C
$0 Vol.
22%
8°C
$38 Vol.
21%
9°C
$34 Vol.
38%
10°C
$0 Vol.
13%
11°C
$0 Vol.
14%
12°C or higher
$0 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for Wellington reveal notable uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures on September 11, with some guidance favoring clear skies and radiational cooling under light southerly flow that could push lows toward 3–6°C, while others indicate stronger northwesterlies and increased cloud cover limiting drops to 8–11°C. This spread, typical for the region's variable spring conditions influenced by the Southern Ocean and Cook Strait, underpins the closely matched market-implied odds on extreme outcomes. Official monitoring from MetService and international ensembles will provide updated guidance ahead of resolution, highlighting how small shifts in wind direction or timing of any passing fronts can alter the lowest reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$71End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for Wellington reveal notable uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures on September 11, with some guidance favoring clear skies and radiational cooling under light southerly flow that could push lows toward 3–6°C, while others indicate stronger northwesterlies and increased cloud cover limiting drops to 8–11°C. This spread, typical for the region's variable spring conditions influenced by the Southern Ocean and Cook Strait, underpins the closely matched market-implied odds on extreme outcomes. Official monitoring from MetService and international ensembles will provide updated guidance ahead of resolution, highlighting how small shifts in wind direction or timing of any passing fronts can alter the lowest reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$71End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs for Wellington reveal notable uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures on September 11, with some guidance favoring clear skies and radiational cooling under light southerly flow that could push lows toward 3–6°C, while others indicate stronger northwesterlies and increased cloud cover limiting drops to 8–11°C. This spread, typical for the region's variable spring conditions influenced by the Southern Ocean and Cook Strait, underpins the closely matched market-implied odds on extreme outcomes. Official monitoring from MetService and international ensembles will provide updated guidance ahead of resolution, highlighting how small shifts in wind direction or timing of any passing fronts can alter the lowest reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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