**Divergent short-range forecast models for overnight minimum temperatures on September 10–11 create the near-even split between sub-5 °C and 15 °C-plus outcomes.** Recent warm advection has kept daytime highs near 20–29 °C through September 9, but a shift toward lighter winds and variable cloud cover favors stronger radiative cooling after sunset. Ensemble guidance shows overnight lows clustered around 10–13 °C, yet small differences in low-level moisture, boundary-layer mixing, and high-cloud timing can swing the minimum by several degrees. Official Polish meteorological updates and the next ECMWF/GFS runs will tighten the range before the 24-hour observation window closes. Traders are therefore weighting both the risk of clear-sky radiational cooling toward single-digit Celsius values and the potential for residual warmth or increased mixing to hold minima above 15 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 11?
5°C or below 85%
15°C or higher 78%
10°C 39%
7°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
5°C or below
85%
6°C
19%
7°C
30%
8°C
27%
9°C
11%
10°C
39%
11°C
15%
12°C
14%
13°C
5%
14°C
5%
15°C or higher
78%
5°C or below 85%
15°C or higher 78%
10°C 39%
7°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
85%
6°C
$9 Vol.
19%
7°C
$0 Vol.
30%
8°C
$0 Vol.
27%
9°C
$48 Vol.
11%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$60 Vol.
15%
12°C
$0 Vol.
14%
13°C
$0 Vol.
5%
14°C
$0 Vol.
5%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Divergent short-range forecast models for overnight minimum temperatures on September 10–11 create the near-even split between sub-5 °C and 15 °C-plus outcomes.** Recent warm advection has kept daytime highs near 20–29 °C through September 9, but a shift toward lighter winds and variable cloud cover favors stronger radiative cooling after sunset. Ensemble guidance shows overnight lows clustered around 10–13 °C, yet small differences in low-level moisture, boundary-layer mixing, and high-cloud timing can swing the minimum by several degrees. Official Polish meteorological updates and the next ECMWF/GFS runs will tighten the range before the 24-hour observation window closes. Traders are therefore weighting both the risk of clear-sky radiational cooling toward single-digit Celsius values and the potential for residual warmth or increased mixing to hold minima above 15 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$117End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Divergent short-range forecast models for overnight minimum temperatures on September 10–11 create the near-even split between sub-5 °C and 15 °C-plus outcomes.** Recent warm advection has kept daytime highs near 20–29 °C through September 9, but a shift toward lighter winds and variable cloud cover favors stronger radiative cooling after sunset. Ensemble guidance shows overnight lows clustered around 10–13 °C, yet small differences in low-level moisture, boundary-layer mixing, and high-cloud timing can swing the minimum by several degrees. Official Polish meteorological updates and the next ECMWF/GFS runs will tighten the range before the 24-hour observation window closes. Traders are therefore weighting both the risk of clear-sky radiational cooling toward single-digit Celsius values and the potential for residual warmth or increased mixing to hold minima above 15 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$117End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Divergent short-range forecast models for overnight minimum temperatures on September 10–11 create the near-even split between sub-5 °C and 15 °C-plus outcomes.** Recent warm advection has kept daytime highs near 20–29 °C through September 9, but a shift toward lighter winds and variable cloud cover favors stronger radiative cooling after sunset. Ensemble guidance shows overnight lows clustered around 10–13 °C, yet small differences in low-level moisture, boundary-layer mixing, and high-cloud timing can swing the minimum by several degrees. Official Polish meteorological updates and the next ECMWF/GFS runs will tighten the range before the 24-hour observation window closes. Traders are therefore weighting both the risk of clear-sky radiational cooling toward single-digit Celsius values and the potential for residual warmth or increased mixing to hold minima above 15 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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