**Trader consensus centers on 13°C as the confirmed daily minimum temperature recorded at official Paris weather stations.** Late-day observational data from monitoring networks, including nighttime cooling under mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds, locked in this value with negligible deviation risk. Forecasts earlier in the period projected overnight lows between 11–17°C depending on model runs, but real-time measurements aligned precisely at 13°C, driving the 100% implied probability. This reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating live station reports rather than model projections alone. The only realistic challenge would involve a post hoc revision in official Météo-France or equivalent datasets due to sensor calibration or data quality review, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary values stabilize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 20?
13°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$17,082 Vol.
$17,082 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$17,082 Vol.
$17,082 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
10°C or below
$16 Vol.
No
11°C
$248 Vol.
No
12°C
$364 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,365 Vol.
Yes
14°C
$10,529 Vol.
No
15°C
$3,126 Vol.
No
16°C
$279 Vol.
No
17°C
$31 Vol.
No
18°C
$41 Vol.
No
19°C
$41 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$41 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 13°C as the confirmed daily minimum temperature recorded at official Paris weather stations.** Late-day observational data from monitoring networks, including nighttime cooling under mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds, locked in this value with negligible deviation risk. Forecasts earlier in the period projected overnight lows between 11–17°C depending on model runs, but real-time measurements aligned precisely at 13°C, driving the 100% implied probability. This reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating live station reports rather than model projections alone. The only realistic challenge would involve a post hoc revision in official Météo-France or equivalent datasets due to sensor calibration or data quality review, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary values stabilize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$17,082End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 13°C as the confirmed daily minimum temperature recorded at official Paris weather stations.** Late-day observational data from monitoring networks, including nighttime cooling under mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds, locked in this value with negligible deviation risk. Forecasts earlier in the period projected overnight lows between 11–17°C depending on model runs, but real-time measurements aligned precisely at 13°C, driving the 100% implied probability. This reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating live station reports rather than model projections alone. The only realistic challenge would involve a post hoc revision in official Météo-France or equivalent datasets due to sensor calibration or data quality review, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary values stabilize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,082End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus centers on 13°C as the confirmed daily minimum temperature recorded at official Paris weather stations.** Late-day observational data from monitoring networks, including nighttime cooling under mostly cloudy skies with light northerly winds, locked in this value with negligible deviation risk. Forecasts earlier in the period projected overnight lows between 11–17°C depending on model runs, but real-time measurements aligned precisely at 13°C, driving the 100% implied probability. This reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating live station reports rather than model projections alone. The only realistic challenge would involve a post hoc revision in official Météo-France or equivalent datasets due to sensor calibration or data quality review, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary values stabilize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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