**Trader consensus at 100% on 7°C** for Munich’s lowest temperature on September 12 reflects the latest forecast consensus from models aligned with Deutscher Wetterdienst guidance, showing overnight radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds reaching a minimum near that threshold. This aligns with current surface observations and ensemble runs projecting stabilization around 7°C rather than the seasonal average low of ~10.5°C. The market’s overwhelming positioning captures the narrow uncertainty band remaining late in the day, with resolution based on official station measurements. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected increases in cloud cover reducing cooling, a late wind shift, or localized microclimate variations at the recording site that push the actual minimum 1–2°C higher or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 12?
7°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$1,268 Vol.
$1,268 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
4°C or below
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
Yes
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C or higher
No
7°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$1,268 Vol.
$1,268 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
4°C or below
$25 Vol.
No
5°C
$45 Vol.
No
6°C
$55 Vol.
No
7°C
$339 Vol.
Yes
8°C
$180 Vol.
No
9°C
$209 Vol.
No
10°C
$285 Vol.
No
11°C
$40 Vol.
No
12°C
$0 Vol.
No
13°C
$45 Vol.
No
14°C or higher
$45 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% on 7°C** for Munich’s lowest temperature on September 12 reflects the latest forecast consensus from models aligned with Deutscher Wetterdienst guidance, showing overnight radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds reaching a minimum near that threshold. This aligns with current surface observations and ensemble runs projecting stabilization around 7°C rather than the seasonal average low of ~10.5°C. The market’s overwhelming positioning captures the narrow uncertainty band remaining late in the day, with resolution based on official station measurements. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected increases in cloud cover reducing cooling, a late wind shift, or localized microclimate variations at the recording site that push the actual minimum 1–2°C higher or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,268End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% on 7°C** for Munich’s lowest temperature on September 12 reflects the latest forecast consensus from models aligned with Deutscher Wetterdienst guidance, showing overnight radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds reaching a minimum near that threshold. This aligns with current surface observations and ensemble runs projecting stabilization around 7°C rather than the seasonal average low of ~10.5°C. The market’s overwhelming positioning captures the narrow uncertainty band remaining late in the day, with resolution based on official station measurements. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected increases in cloud cover reducing cooling, a late wind shift, or localized microclimate variations at the recording site that push the actual minimum 1–2°C higher or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,268End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus at 100% on 7°C** for Munich’s lowest temperature on September 12 reflects the latest forecast consensus from models aligned with Deutscher Wetterdienst guidance, showing overnight radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds reaching a minimum near that threshold. This aligns with current surface observations and ensemble runs projecting stabilization around 7°C rather than the seasonal average low of ~10.5°C. The market’s overwhelming positioning captures the narrow uncertainty band remaining late in the day, with resolution based on official station measurements. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected increases in cloud cover reducing cooling, a late wind shift, or localized microclimate variations at the recording site that push the actual minimum 1–2°C higher or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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