Traders have converged on 32°C as the market-implied outcome for Manila’s daily maximum temperature on September 16, reflecting the latest official forecasts and real-time observations from monitoring stations. Mid-September climatology in the region typically features highs near 30–31°C amid the southwest monsoon, with high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and light winds limiting extreme deviations. Model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF supports a peak in the low 30s Celsius during afternoon hours, consistent with historical baselines and current atmospheric conditions including cloud cover and precipitation probabilities around 70–90%. A shift to clearer skies or delayed storm development could push readings slightly higher, while heavier or earlier rainfall might cap the maximum below this threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 16?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$46,238 Vol.
$46,238 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$46,238 Vol.
$46,238 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
$387 Vol.
No
27°C
$814 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,392 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,830 Vol.
No
30°C
$5,307 Vol.
No
31°C
$10,447 Vol.
No
32°C
$11,903 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$10,255 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,155 Vol.
No
35°C
$507 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$241 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 32°C as the market-implied outcome for Manila’s daily maximum temperature on September 16, reflecting the latest official forecasts and real-time observations from monitoring stations. Mid-September climatology in the region typically features highs near 30–31°C amid the southwest monsoon, with high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and light winds limiting extreme deviations. Model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF supports a peak in the low 30s Celsius during afternoon hours, consistent with historical baselines and current atmospheric conditions including cloud cover and precipitation probabilities around 70–90%. A shift to clearer skies or delayed storm development could push readings slightly higher, while heavier or earlier rainfall might cap the maximum below this threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$46,238End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 32°C as the market-implied outcome for Manila’s daily maximum temperature on September 16, reflecting the latest official forecasts and real-time observations from monitoring stations. Mid-September climatology in the region typically features highs near 30–31°C amid the southwest monsoon, with high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and light winds limiting extreme deviations. Model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF supports a peak in the low 30s Celsius during afternoon hours, consistent with historical baselines and current atmospheric conditions including cloud cover and precipitation probabilities around 70–90%. A shift to clearer skies or delayed storm development could push readings slightly higher, while heavier or earlier rainfall might cap the maximum below this threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$46,238End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on 32°C as the market-implied outcome for Manila’s daily maximum temperature on September 16, reflecting the latest official forecasts and real-time observations from monitoring stations. Mid-September climatology in the region typically features highs near 30–31°C amid the southwest monsoon, with high humidity, scattered thunderstorms, and light winds limiting extreme deviations. Model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF supports a peak in the low 30s Celsius during afternoon hours, consistent with historical baselines and current atmospheric conditions including cloud cover and precipitation probabilities around 70–90%. A shift to clearer skies or delayed storm development could push readings slightly higher, while heavier or earlier rainfall might cap the maximum below this threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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