**Persistent rain and cool northeasterly flow have capped Tokyo’s daytime maximum near 22–23 °C on 16 September 2026.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple numerical models (GFS, Met Office) forecast a high of 22 °C under overcast, rainy conditions with northeast winds of 10–15 km/h and 100 % probability of precipitation. Real-time observations through mid-afternoon confirm temperatures hovering at or just above 22 °C, consistent with the market’s 98 % implied probability for a 23 °C peak. The strong consensus stems from the storm’s steering pattern and abundant cloud cover preventing any late-day warming. Historical September climatology for Tokyo shows typical highs near 27 °C, but the current synoptic setup—persistent onshore flow and heavy rainfall—has suppressed temperatures by 4–5 °C below average. Because the market resolves on the official daily maximum (usually the 24-hour highest 10-minute average from the Tokyo station), traders are effectively pricing the final observed value rather than a forecast. A realistic challenge would require an unexpectedly rapid clearing of clouds or a sharp wind shift that allows brief solar heating to push readings to 24 °C or higher before midnight JST. Given the entrenched rain shield and model agreement, such a reversal remains low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
23°C 98%
24°C 3%
22°C <1%
26°C <1%
$99,500 Vol.
$99,500 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
98%
24°C
3%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
23°C 98%
24°C 3%
22°C <1%
26°C <1%
$99,500 Vol.
$99,500 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
19°C or below
$1,620 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,854 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,276 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$28,205 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$10,516 Vol.
98%
24°C
$9,126 Vol.
3%
25°C
$30,279 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$6,196 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,090 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$3,039 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$4,300 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent rain and cool northeasterly flow have capped Tokyo’s daytime maximum near 22–23 °C on 16 September 2026.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple numerical models (GFS, Met Office) forecast a high of 22 °C under overcast, rainy conditions with northeast winds of 10–15 km/h and 100 % probability of precipitation. Real-time observations through mid-afternoon confirm temperatures hovering at or just above 22 °C, consistent with the market’s 98 % implied probability for a 23 °C peak.
The strong consensus stems from the storm’s steering pattern and abundant cloud cover preventing any late-day warming. Historical September climatology for Tokyo shows typical highs near 27 °C, but the current synoptic setup—persistent onshore flow and heavy rainfall—has suppressed temperatures by 4–5 °C below average. Because the market resolves on the official daily maximum (usually the 24-hour highest 10-minute average from the Tokyo station), traders are effectively pricing the final observed value rather than a forecast.
A realistic challenge would require an unexpectedly rapid clearing of clouds or a sharp wind shift that allows brief solar heating to push readings to 24 °C or higher before midnight JST. Given the entrenched rain shield and model agreement, such a reversal remains low-probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$99,500End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent rain and cool northeasterly flow have capped Tokyo’s daytime maximum near 22–23 °C on 16 September 2026.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple numerical models (GFS, Met Office) forecast a high of 22 °C under overcast, rainy conditions with northeast winds of 10–15 km/h and 100 % probability of precipitation. Real-time observations through mid-afternoon confirm temperatures hovering at or just above 22 °C, consistent with the market’s 98 % implied probability for a 23 °C peak.
The strong consensus stems from the storm’s steering pattern and abundant cloud cover preventing any late-day warming. Historical September climatology for Tokyo shows typical highs near 27 °C, but the current synoptic setup—persistent onshore flow and heavy rainfall—has suppressed temperatures by 4–5 °C below average. Because the market resolves on the official daily maximum (usually the 24-hour highest 10-minute average from the Tokyo station), traders are effectively pricing the final observed value rather than a forecast.
A realistic challenge would require an unexpectedly rapid clearing of clouds or a sharp wind shift that allows brief solar heating to push readings to 24 °C or higher before midnight JST. Given the entrenched rain shield and model agreement, such a reversal remains low-probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$99,500End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent rain and cool northeasterly flow have capped Tokyo’s daytime maximum near 22–23 °C on 16 September 2026.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple numerical models (GFS, Met Office) forecast a high of 22 °C under overcast, rainy conditions with northeast winds of 10–15 km/h and 100 % probability of precipitation. Real-time observations through mid-afternoon confirm temperatures hovering at or just above 22 °C, consistent with the market’s 98 % implied probability for a 23 °C peak. The strong consensus stems from the storm’s steering pattern and abundant cloud cover preventing any late-day warming. Historical September climatology for Tokyo shows typical highs near 27 °C, but the current synoptic setup—persistent onshore flow and heavy rainfall—has suppressed temperatures by 4–5 °C below average. Because the market resolves on the official daily maximum (usually the 24-hour highest 10-minute average from the Tokyo station), traders are effectively pricing the final observed value rather than a forecast. A realistic challenge would require an unexpectedly rapid clearing of clouds or a sharp wind shift that allows brief solar heating to push readings to 24 °C or higher before midnight JST. Given the entrenched rain shield and model agreement, such a reversal remains low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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