Recent forecasts from global models indicate overnight lows in Istanbul near 19–21°C under clear skies and moderate northeasterly winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values. Stable high pressure and light winds limit vertical mixing, allowing efficient radiative cooling after sunset, while urban heat retention and station siting introduce small observational variance. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 17–20°C, but current dry conditions and slightly above-average daytime warmth have kept the floor elevated. Traders appear focused on the final few hours of cooling and any late model adjustments from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service before daily minimum resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 10?
21°C 48%
19°C 46%
20°C 43%
18°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
46%
20°C
43%
21°C
48%
22°C
43%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 48%
19°C 46%
20°C 43%
18°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
17°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
46%
20°C
$0 Vol.
43%
21°C
$0 Vol.
48%
22°C
$3 Vol.
43%
23°C
$384 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$213 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$65 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models indicate overnight lows in Istanbul near 19–21°C under clear skies and moderate northeasterly winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values. Stable high pressure and light winds limit vertical mixing, allowing efficient radiative cooling after sunset, while urban heat retention and station siting introduce small observational variance. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 17–20°C, but current dry conditions and slightly above-average daytime warmth have kept the floor elevated. Traders appear focused on the final few hours of cooling and any late model adjustments from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service before daily minimum resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$745End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models indicate overnight lows in Istanbul near 19–21°C under clear skies and moderate northeasterly winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values. Stable high pressure and light winds limit vertical mixing, allowing efficient radiative cooling after sunset, while urban heat retention and station siting introduce small observational variance. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 17–20°C, but current dry conditions and slightly above-average daytime warmth have kept the floor elevated. Traders appear focused on the final few hours of cooling and any late model adjustments from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service before daily minimum resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$745End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from global models indicate overnight lows in Istanbul near 19–21°C under clear skies and moderate northeasterly winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values. Stable high pressure and light winds limit vertical mixing, allowing efficient radiative cooling after sunset, while urban heat retention and station siting introduce small observational variance. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 17–20°C, but current dry conditions and slightly above-average daytime warmth have kept the floor elevated. Traders appear focused on the final few hours of cooling and any late model adjustments from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service before daily minimum resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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