**Cold air advection from northern China is the dominant near-term driver shaping minimum temperature probabilities for Chongqing on September 11.** Official forecasts indicate a cold front arriving overnight on September 9–10, shifting conditions from recent highs near 37–39°C to daytime maxima of 28–32°C and overnight lows potentially falling into the low 20s°C or below. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of northerly flow, nocturnal radiative cooling rates under variable cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any localized rain-cooled air. Ensemble model spreads create the observed market dispersion across the 16–26°C thresholds, with traders weighing how much additional cooling the incoming air mass will deliver versus lingering subtropical moisture. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and regional models over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chongqing on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Chongqing on September 11?
16°C or below 88%
26°C or higher 48%
20°C 46%
17°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
16°C or below
88%
17°C
38%
18°C
17%
19°C
22%
20°C
46%
21°C
29%
22°C
18%
23°C
38%
24°C
38%
25°C
38%
26°C or higher
48%
16°C or below 88%
26°C or higher 48%
20°C 46%
17°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
88%
17°C
$0 Vol.
38%
18°C
$0 Vol.
17%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$16 Vol.
46%
21°C
$0 Vol.
29%
22°C
$0 Vol.
18%
23°C
$0 Vol.
38%
24°C
$0 Vol.
38%
25°C
$0 Vol.
38%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cold air advection from northern China is the dominant near-term driver shaping minimum temperature probabilities for Chongqing on September 11.** Official forecasts indicate a cold front arriving overnight on September 9–10, shifting conditions from recent highs near 37–39°C to daytime maxima of 28–32°C and overnight lows potentially falling into the low 20s°C or below. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of northerly flow, nocturnal radiative cooling rates under variable cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any localized rain-cooled air. Ensemble model spreads create the observed market dispersion across the 16–26°C thresholds, with traders weighing how much additional cooling the incoming air mass will deliver versus lingering subtropical moisture. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and regional models over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cold air advection from northern China is the dominant near-term driver shaping minimum temperature probabilities for Chongqing on September 11.** Official forecasts indicate a cold front arriving overnight on September 9–10, shifting conditions from recent highs near 37–39°C to daytime maxima of 28–32°C and overnight lows potentially falling into the low 20s°C or below. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of northerly flow, nocturnal radiative cooling rates under variable cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any localized rain-cooled air. Ensemble model spreads create the observed market dispersion across the 16–26°C thresholds, with traders weighing how much additional cooling the incoming air mass will deliver versus lingering subtropical moisture. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and regional models over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Cold air advection from northern China is the dominant near-term driver shaping minimum temperature probabilities for Chongqing on September 11.** Official forecasts indicate a cold front arriving overnight on September 9–10, shifting conditions from recent highs near 37–39°C to daytime maxima of 28–32°C and overnight lows potentially falling into the low 20s°C or below. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of northerly flow, nocturnal radiative cooling rates under variable cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any localized rain-cooled air. Ensemble model spreads create the observed market dispersion across the 16–26°C thresholds, with traders weighing how much additional cooling the incoming air mass will deliver versus lingering subtropical moisture. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and regional models over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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