Incoming cold air advection is the dominant factor shaping trader positioning on Chongqing's September 11 minimum temperature, with models showing a sharp drop from recent highs near 35–38°C. Official guidance indicates the center city may see lows between 17–22°C under mostly cloudy skies and light winds, while peripheral districts could dip to 13°C, creating divergence between the leading 20°C (46%) and 16°C-or-below (44%) outcomes. Ensemble spreads reflect typical late-summer variability in steering patterns and boundary-layer mixing, with historical September averages near 21–22°C providing limited guidance for this transitional event. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine the implied probability between these closely matched bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chongqing on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Chongqing on September 11?
16°C or below 86%
20°C 46%
26°C or higher 46%
17°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
16°C or below
86%
17°C
37%
18°C
16%
19°C
22%
20°C
46%
21°C
29%
22°C
18%
23°C
37%
24°C
37%
25°C
37%
26°C or higher
46%
16°C or below 86%
20°C 46%
26°C or higher 46%
17°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
86%
17°C
$0 Vol.
37%
18°C
$0 Vol.
16%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$16 Vol.
46%
21°C
$0 Vol.
29%
22°C
$0 Vol.
18%
23°C
$0 Vol.
37%
24°C
$0 Vol.
37%
25°C
$0 Vol.
37%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Incoming cold air advection is the dominant factor shaping trader positioning on Chongqing's September 11 minimum temperature, with models showing a sharp drop from recent highs near 35–38°C. Official guidance indicates the center city may see lows between 17–22°C under mostly cloudy skies and light winds, while peripheral districts could dip to 13°C, creating divergence between the leading 20°C (46%) and 16°C-or-below (44%) outcomes. Ensemble spreads reflect typical late-summer variability in steering patterns and boundary-layer mixing, with historical September averages near 21–22°C providing limited guidance for this transitional event. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine the implied probability between these closely matched bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Incoming cold air advection is the dominant factor shaping trader positioning on Chongqing's September 11 minimum temperature, with models showing a sharp drop from recent highs near 35–38°C. Official guidance indicates the center city may see lows between 17–22°C under mostly cloudy skies and light winds, while peripheral districts could dip to 13°C, creating divergence between the leading 20°C (46%) and 16°C-or-below (44%) outcomes. Ensemble spreads reflect typical late-summer variability in steering patterns and boundary-layer mixing, with historical September averages near 21–22°C providing limited guidance for this transitional event. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine the implied probability between these closely matched bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incoming cold air advection is the dominant factor shaping trader positioning on Chongqing's September 11 minimum temperature, with models showing a sharp drop from recent highs near 35–38°C. Official guidance indicates the center city may see lows between 17–22°C under mostly cloudy skies and light winds, while peripheral districts could dip to 13°C, creating divergence between the leading 20°C (46%) and 16°C-or-below (44%) outcomes. Ensemble spreads reflect typical late-summer variability in steering patterns and boundary-layer mixing, with historical September averages near 21–22°C providing limited guidance for this transitional event. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine the implied probability between these closely matched bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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