Recent cooling from a cold air intrusion and widespread rainfall across Sichuan has lowered Chengdu's baseline temperatures, with official forecasts showing overnight lows near 15–17°C on September 11 amid lingering cloud cover and light northerly flow. High humidity from recent precipitation reduces radiative cooling efficiency while basin topography can trap cooler air near the surface, creating narrow spreads in minimum readings. Model consensus supports a most-likely overnight low in the 16–18°C range, yet subtle differences in timing of clearing skies or wind shifts introduce genuine uncertainty that keeps market-implied probabilities tightly clustered around 17–19°C. Updated numerical guidance and local station observations through the night will refine the final recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 11?
14°C or below 49%
24°C or higher 47%
15°C 38%
16°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
49%
15°C
38%
16°C
38%
17°C
25%
18°C
31%
19°C
30%
20°C
22%
21°C
38%
22°C
38%
23°C
38%
24°C or higher
47%
14°C or below 49%
24°C or higher 47%
15°C 38%
16°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
49%
15°C
$0 Vol.
38%
16°C
$0 Vol.
38%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
31%
19°C
$0 Vol.
30%
20°C
$0 Vol.
22%
21°C
$0 Vol.
38%
22°C
$0 Vol.
38%
23°C
$0 Vol.
38%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooling from a cold air intrusion and widespread rainfall across Sichuan has lowered Chengdu's baseline temperatures, with official forecasts showing overnight lows near 15–17°C on September 11 amid lingering cloud cover and light northerly flow. High humidity from recent precipitation reduces radiative cooling efficiency while basin topography can trap cooler air near the surface, creating narrow spreads in minimum readings. Model consensus supports a most-likely overnight low in the 16–18°C range, yet subtle differences in timing of clearing skies or wind shifts introduce genuine uncertainty that keeps market-implied probabilities tightly clustered around 17–19°C. Updated numerical guidance and local station observations through the night will refine the final recorded minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooling from a cold air intrusion and widespread rainfall across Sichuan has lowered Chengdu's baseline temperatures, with official forecasts showing overnight lows near 15–17°C on September 11 amid lingering cloud cover and light northerly flow. High humidity from recent precipitation reduces radiative cooling efficiency while basin topography can trap cooler air near the surface, creating narrow spreads in minimum readings. Model consensus supports a most-likely overnight low in the 16–18°C range, yet subtle differences in timing of clearing skies or wind shifts introduce genuine uncertainty that keeps market-implied probabilities tightly clustered around 17–19°C. Updated numerical guidance and local station observations through the night will refine the final recorded minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cooling from a cold air intrusion and widespread rainfall across Sichuan has lowered Chengdu's baseline temperatures, with official forecasts showing overnight lows near 15–17°C on September 11 amid lingering cloud cover and light northerly flow. High humidity from recent precipitation reduces radiative cooling efficiency while basin topography can trap cooler air near the surface, creating narrow spreads in minimum readings. Model consensus supports a most-likely overnight low in the 16–18°C range, yet subtle differences in timing of clearing skies or wind shifts introduce genuine uncertainty that keeps market-implied probabilities tightly clustered around 17–19°C. Updated numerical guidance and local station observations through the night will refine the final recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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