Persistent southerly flow and high humidity under partly cloudy skies are keeping overnight lows elevated near 76–78°F across Austin on September 10, according to National Weather Service forecasts. With no strong cold front or significant radiational cooling expected, model consensus points to a minimum in the mid- to upper 70s rather than the climatological average near 70°F. Traders have clustered implied probabilities around the 74–77°F bins because these align closely with the latest model runs and current surface observations showing dew points in the low 70s that limit temperature drops. Minor variations in cloud cover or wind speed could still shift the exact reading within that narrow range before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 10?
88°F or higher 53%
69°F or below 52%
76-77°F 30%
74-75°F 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
69°F or below
52%
70-71°F
21%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
28%
76-77°F
30%
78-79°F
22%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
4%
88°F or higher
53%
88°F or higher 53%
69°F or below 52%
76-77°F 30%
74-75°F 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
69°F or below
$5 Vol.
52%
70-71°F
$30 Vol.
21%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
27%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
28%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
30%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
22%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
21%
82-83°F
$20 Vol.
9%
84-85°F
$5 Vol.
9%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
4%
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southerly flow and high humidity under partly cloudy skies are keeping overnight lows elevated near 76–78°F across Austin on September 10, according to National Weather Service forecasts. With no strong cold front or significant radiational cooling expected, model consensus points to a minimum in the mid- to upper 70s rather than the climatological average near 70°F. Traders have clustered implied probabilities around the 74–77°F bins because these align closely with the latest model runs and current surface observations showing dew points in the low 70s that limit temperature drops. Minor variations in cloud cover or wind speed could still shift the exact reading within that narrow range before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$65End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southerly flow and high humidity under partly cloudy skies are keeping overnight lows elevated near 76–78°F across Austin on September 10, according to National Weather Service forecasts. With no strong cold front or significant radiational cooling expected, model consensus points to a minimum in the mid- to upper 70s rather than the climatological average near 70°F. Traders have clustered implied probabilities around the 74–77°F bins because these align closely with the latest model runs and current surface observations showing dew points in the low 70s that limit temperature drops. Minor variations in cloud cover or wind speed could still shift the exact reading within that narrow range before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$65End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southerly flow and high humidity under partly cloudy skies are keeping overnight lows elevated near 76–78°F across Austin on September 10, according to National Weather Service forecasts. With no strong cold front or significant radiational cooling expected, model consensus points to a minimum in the mid- to upper 70s rather than the climatological average near 70°F. Traders have clustered implied probabilities around the 74–77°F bins because these align closely with the latest model runs and current surface observations showing dew points in the low 70s that limit temperature drops. Minor variations in cloud cover or wind speed could still shift the exact reading within that narrow range before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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