Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and regional meteorological services points to a maximum temperature of 18°C in Warsaw on September 11 as the most probable outcome, reflected in the leading market-implied odds. A stabilizing high-pressure system and increased cloud cover following warmer early-September readings near 29°C have suppressed daytime heating, with light variable winds and overnight lows in the low teens limiting recovery. Ensemble runs show tight clustering between 17–19°C, with minimal risk of exceeding 20°C under current steering patterns. Traders are monitoring the next official IMGW briefing and updated model cycles for any shifts in cloud thickness or wind direction that could alter the diurnal range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 11?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 11?
18°C 47%
17°C 27%
19°C 21%
16°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
2%
15°C
4%
16°C
6%
17°C
27%
18°C
47%
19°C
21%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 47%
17°C 27%
19°C 21%
16°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
$40 Vol.
2%
15°C
$40 Vol.
4%
16°C
$143 Vol.
6%
17°C
$1,297 Vol.
27%
18°C
$368 Vol.
47%
19°C
$620 Vol.
21%
20°C
$272 Vol.
4%
21°C
$210 Vol.
2%
22°C
$26 Vol.
1%
23°C
$215 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$243 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and regional meteorological services points to a maximum temperature of 18°C in Warsaw on September 11 as the most probable outcome, reflected in the leading market-implied odds. A stabilizing high-pressure system and increased cloud cover following warmer early-September readings near 29°C have suppressed daytime heating, with light variable winds and overnight lows in the low teens limiting recovery. Ensemble runs show tight clustering between 17–19°C, with minimal risk of exceeding 20°C under current steering patterns. Traders are monitoring the next official IMGW briefing and updated model cycles for any shifts in cloud thickness or wind direction that could alter the diurnal range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,473End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and regional meteorological services points to a maximum temperature of 18°C in Warsaw on September 11 as the most probable outcome, reflected in the leading market-implied odds. A stabilizing high-pressure system and increased cloud cover following warmer early-September readings near 29°C have suppressed daytime heating, with light variable winds and overnight lows in the low teens limiting recovery. Ensemble runs show tight clustering between 17–19°C, with minimal risk of exceeding 20°C under current steering patterns. Traders are monitoring the next official IMGW briefing and updated model cycles for any shifts in cloud thickness or wind direction that could alter the diurnal range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,473End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and regional meteorological services points to a maximum temperature of 18°C in Warsaw on September 11 as the most probable outcome, reflected in the leading market-implied odds. A stabilizing high-pressure system and increased cloud cover following warmer early-September readings near 29°C have suppressed daytime heating, with light variable winds and overnight lows in the low teens limiting recovery. Ensemble runs show tight clustering between 17–19°C, with minimal risk of exceeding 20°C under current steering patterns. Traders are monitoring the next official IMGW briefing and updated model cycles for any shifts in cloud thickness or wind direction that could alter the diurnal range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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