**Environment Canada’s official forecast of a 26°C high under mainly cloudy skies with light northerly flow is the main driver behind current odds, yet persistent cloud cover and limited solar heating have kept trader consensus centered on 24–25°C.** Afternoon model runs show only modest boundary-layer mixing and dew points near 16°C, which caps peak readings even if brief sun breaks occur. Historical September maxima at Pearson Airport average near 22–23°C, so any realization above 25°C would mark an above-normal event driven by recent warm advection. With markets resolving on the single highest hourly or daily maximum observation, small differences in cloud timing or wind shift could easily separate 24°C from 26°C outcomes, leaving the 41% and 32.5% probabilities on 25°C and 24°C as reasonable reflections of forecast uncertainty on the final day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on September 16?
Highest temperature in Toronto on September 16?
25°C 41%
24°C 33%
23°C 15%
26°C 13%
NEW
$19,796 Vol.
NEW
$19,796 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
15%
24°C
33%
25°C
41%
26°C
13%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 41%
24°C 33%
23°C 15%
26°C 13%
NEW
$19,796 Vol.
NEW
$19,796 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
$175 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$503 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$429 Vol.
1%
21°C
$981 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,477 Vol.
2%
23°C
$5,375 Vol.
15%
24°C
$2,578 Vol.
33%
25°C
$3,897 Vol.
41%
26°C
$3,036 Vol.
13%
27°C
$871 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$475 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Environment Canada’s official forecast of a 26°C high under mainly cloudy skies with light northerly flow is the main driver behind current odds, yet persistent cloud cover and limited solar heating have kept trader consensus centered on 24–25°C.** Afternoon model runs show only modest boundary-layer mixing and dew points near 16°C, which caps peak readings even if brief sun breaks occur. Historical September maxima at Pearson Airport average near 22–23°C, so any realization above 25°C would mark an above-normal event driven by recent warm advection. With markets resolving on the single highest hourly or daily maximum observation, small differences in cloud timing or wind shift could easily separate 24°C from 26°C outcomes, leaving the 41% and 32.5% probabilities on 25°C and 24°C as reasonable reflections of forecast uncertainty on the final day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$19,796End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Environment Canada’s official forecast of a 26°C high under mainly cloudy skies with light northerly flow is the main driver behind current odds, yet persistent cloud cover and limited solar heating have kept trader consensus centered on 24–25°C.** Afternoon model runs show only modest boundary-layer mixing and dew points near 16°C, which caps peak readings even if brief sun breaks occur. Historical September maxima at Pearson Airport average near 22–23°C, so any realization above 25°C would mark an above-normal event driven by recent warm advection. With markets resolving on the single highest hourly or daily maximum observation, small differences in cloud timing or wind shift could easily separate 24°C from 26°C outcomes, leaving the 41% and 32.5% probabilities on 25°C and 24°C as reasonable reflections of forecast uncertainty on the final day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19,796End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Environment Canada’s official forecast of a 26°C high under mainly cloudy skies with light northerly flow is the main driver behind current odds, yet persistent cloud cover and limited solar heating have kept trader consensus centered on 24–25°C.** Afternoon model runs show only modest boundary-layer mixing and dew points near 16°C, which caps peak readings even if brief sun breaks occur. Historical September maxima at Pearson Airport average near 22–23°C, so any realization above 25°C would mark an above-normal event driven by recent warm advection. With markets resolving on the single highest hourly or daily maximum observation, small differences in cloud timing or wind shift could easily separate 24°C from 26°C outcomes, leaving the 41% and 32.5% probabilities on 25°C and 24°C as reasonable reflections of forecast uncertainty on the final day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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