Official meteorological observations and forecast models from agencies such as the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo reaching a daily maximum of 28°C on September 15 amid cloudy, rainy conditions with moderate humidity and light winds. This aligns with seasonal September baselines near 27–28°C, adjusted for current synoptic patterns including nearby low-pressure influences and thunderstorm activity that cap further warming. Market-implied odds reflect strong trader consensus on these verified measurements and model agreement, with real capital backing the outcome. Realistic challenges include post-event data revisions from official stations or localized microclimate variations pushing the recorded high slightly outside the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 15?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 15?
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$87,375 Vol.
$87,375 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$87,375 Vol.
$87,375 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
21°C or below
$1,548 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,373 Vol.
No
23°C
$615 Vol.
No
24°C
$594 Vol.
No
25°C
$18,685 Vol.
No
26°C
$17,533 Vol.
No
27°C
$15,132 Vol.
No
28°C
$12,356 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$6,820 Vol.
No
30°C
$8,004 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$4,714 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official meteorological observations and forecast models from agencies such as the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo reaching a daily maximum of 28°C on September 15 amid cloudy, rainy conditions with moderate humidity and light winds. This aligns with seasonal September baselines near 27–28°C, adjusted for current synoptic patterns including nearby low-pressure influences and thunderstorm activity that cap further warming. Market-implied odds reflect strong trader consensus on these verified measurements and model agreement, with real capital backing the outcome. Realistic challenges include post-event data revisions from official stations or localized microclimate variations pushing the recorded high slightly outside the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$87,375End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official meteorological observations and forecast models from agencies such as the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo reaching a daily maximum of 28°C on September 15 amid cloudy, rainy conditions with moderate humidity and light winds. This aligns with seasonal September baselines near 27–28°C, adjusted for current synoptic patterns including nearby low-pressure influences and thunderstorm activity that cap further warming. Market-implied odds reflect strong trader consensus on these verified measurements and model agreement, with real capital backing the outcome. Realistic challenges include post-event data revisions from official stations or localized microclimate variations pushing the recorded high slightly outside the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$87,375End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official meteorological observations and forecast models from agencies such as the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo reaching a daily maximum of 28°C on September 15 amid cloudy, rainy conditions with moderate humidity and light winds. This aligns with seasonal September baselines near 27–28°C, adjusted for current synoptic patterns including nearby low-pressure influences and thunderstorm activity that cap further warming. Market-implied odds reflect strong trader consensus on these verified measurements and model agreement, with real capital backing the outcome. Realistic challenges include post-event data revisions from official stations or localized microclimate variations pushing the recorded high slightly outside the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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