Official meteorological observations from stations in Qingdao have established a daily maximum temperature of 31°C on September 15, driving the market-implied probability to 100% for that outcome. Real-time surface data and automated weather network readings show peak conditions aligning precisely with this threshold under prevailing atmospheric patterns, including moderate humidity and limited daytime heating. Historical September baselines for the region typically range 24–28°C, making the current reading a clear deviation supported by verified station reports rather than model projections alone. Minor uncertainty persists around potential post-peak revisions or microclimate variations at secondary sites, though such adjustments rarely alter the official maximum once recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 15?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 15?
31°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$25,351 Vol.
$25,351 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$25,351 Vol.
$25,351 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
22°C or below
$98 Vol.
No
23°C
$88 Vol.
No
24°C
$198 Vol.
No
25°C
$188 Vol.
No
26°C
$180 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,625 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,036 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,723 Vol.
No
30°C
$7,158 Vol.
No
31°C
$5,383 Vol.
Yes
32°C or higher
$4,674 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official meteorological observations from stations in Qingdao have established a daily maximum temperature of 31°C on September 15, driving the market-implied probability to 100% for that outcome. Real-time surface data and automated weather network readings show peak conditions aligning precisely with this threshold under prevailing atmospheric patterns, including moderate humidity and limited daytime heating. Historical September baselines for the region typically range 24–28°C, making the current reading a clear deviation supported by verified station reports rather than model projections alone. Minor uncertainty persists around potential post-peak revisions or microclimate variations at secondary sites, though such adjustments rarely alter the official maximum once recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ET
Volume
$25,351End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official meteorological observations from stations in Qingdao have established a daily maximum temperature of 31°C on September 15, driving the market-implied probability to 100% for that outcome. Real-time surface data and automated weather network readings show peak conditions aligning precisely with this threshold under prevailing atmospheric patterns, including moderate humidity and limited daytime heating. Historical September baselines for the region typically range 24–28°C, making the current reading a clear deviation supported by verified station reports rather than model projections alone. Minor uncertainty persists around potential post-peak revisions or microclimate variations at secondary sites, though such adjustments rarely alter the official maximum once recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,351End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official meteorological observations from stations in Qingdao have established a daily maximum temperature of 31°C on September 15, driving the market-implied probability to 100% for that outcome. Real-time surface data and automated weather network readings show peak conditions aligning precisely with this threshold under prevailing atmospheric patterns, including moderate humidity and limited daytime heating. Historical September baselines for the region typically range 24–28°C, making the current reading a clear deviation supported by verified station reports rather than model projections alone. Minor uncertainty persists around potential post-peak revisions or microclimate variations at secondary sites, though such adjustments rarely alter the official maximum once recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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