The market-implied odds cluster around 19–20°C because the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service place Munich’s September 11 maximum in that narrow band, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in the strength and timing of a weakening high-pressure ridge over central Europe. Model runs show surface temperatures moderated by light northeasterly flow and residual cloud cover from an earlier frontal passage, while climatological baselines for mid-September in southern Bavaria average near 18–19°C. Upcoming 12–18 UTC model updates and any observed shifts in 850 hPa thickness will be the primary near-term drivers of further probability adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on September 11?
Highest temperature in Munich on September 11?
19°C 32%
20°C 27%
21°C or higher 21%
18°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
5%
18°C
19%
19°C
32%
20°C
27%
21°C or higher
21%
19°C 32%
20°C 27%
21°C or higher 21%
18°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
11°C or below
$487 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$526 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$537 Vol.
1%
15°C
$487 Vol.
1%
16°C
$114 Vol.
2%
17°C
$132 Vol.
5%
18°C
$617 Vol.
19%
19°C
$864 Vol.
32%
20°C
$534 Vol.
27%
21°C or higher
$1,743 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied odds cluster around 19–20°C because the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service place Munich’s September 11 maximum in that narrow band, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in the strength and timing of a weakening high-pressure ridge over central Europe. Model runs show surface temperatures moderated by light northeasterly flow and residual cloud cover from an earlier frontal passage, while climatological baselines for mid-September in southern Bavaria average near 18–19°C. Upcoming 12–18 UTC model updates and any observed shifts in 850 hPa thickness will be the primary near-term drivers of further probability adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,106End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied odds cluster around 19–20°C because the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service place Munich’s September 11 maximum in that narrow band, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in the strength and timing of a weakening high-pressure ridge over central Europe. Model runs show surface temperatures moderated by light northeasterly flow and residual cloud cover from an earlier frontal passage, while climatological baselines for mid-September in southern Bavaria average near 18–19°C. Upcoming 12–18 UTC model updates and any observed shifts in 850 hPa thickness will be the primary near-term drivers of further probability adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,106End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds cluster around 19–20°C because the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service place Munich’s September 11 maximum in that narrow band, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in the strength and timing of a weakening high-pressure ridge over central Europe. Model runs show surface temperatures moderated by light northeasterly flow and residual cloud cover from an earlier frontal passage, while climatological baselines for mid-September in southern Bavaria average near 18–19°C. Upcoming 12–18 UTC model updates and any observed shifts in 850 hPa thickness will be the primary near-term drivers of further probability adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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