**Trader consensus has converged on 84-85°F as the resolved high temperature for Miami on September 17, 2026, with near-100% implied probability.** Official observations from Miami International Airport (KMIA) recorded a daily maximum of 83–84°F, well below the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 89.1°F. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and an upper-level low-pressure system suppressed daytime heating and limited insolation, producing measurable precipitation (0.06 inches at the airport) and moderating temperatures. This outcome aligns with real-time surface observations and National Weather Service climate summaries issued that evening. Historical analogs show similar rain-cooled days in mid-September can drop highs into the low-to-mid 80s, as seen in past years with comparable synoptic patterns. Market-implied odds reflect the finality of post-event data releases, leaving little room for revision unless an alternate station or rounding convention is used for resolution—scenarios viewed as improbable by traders given the consistency across primary reporting networks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on September 17?
Highest temperature in Miami on September 17?
84-85°F 100.0%
77°F or below <1%
78-79°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
$78,241 Vol.
$78,241 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
77°F or below
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
Yes
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94-95°F
No
96°F or higher
No
84-85°F 100.0%
77°F or below <1%
78-79°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
$78,241 Vol.
$78,241 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
77°F or below
$401 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$3,518 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$11,126 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$9,296 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$10,904 Vol.
Yes
86-87°F
$12,164 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$11,660 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$10,107 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$6,432 Vol.
No
94-95°F
$2,035 Vol.
No
96°F or higher
$598 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 84-85°F as the resolved high temperature for Miami on September 17, 2026, with near-100% implied probability.** Official observations from Miami International Airport (KMIA) recorded a daily maximum of 83–84°F, well below the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 89.1°F. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and an upper-level low-pressure system suppressed daytime heating and limited insolation, producing measurable precipitation (0.06 inches at the airport) and moderating temperatures.
This outcome aligns with real-time surface observations and National Weather Service climate summaries issued that evening. Historical analogs show similar rain-cooled days in mid-September can drop highs into the low-to-mid 80s, as seen in past years with comparable synoptic patterns. Market-implied odds reflect the finality of post-event data releases, leaving little room for revision unless an alternate station or rounding convention is used for resolution—scenarios viewed as improbable by traders given the consistency across primary reporting networks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$78,241End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 84-85°F as the resolved high temperature for Miami on September 17, 2026, with near-100% implied probability.** Official observations from Miami International Airport (KMIA) recorded a daily maximum of 83–84°F, well below the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 89.1°F. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and an upper-level low-pressure system suppressed daytime heating and limited insolation, producing measurable precipitation (0.06 inches at the airport) and moderating temperatures.
This outcome aligns with real-time surface observations and National Weather Service climate summaries issued that evening. Historical analogs show similar rain-cooled days in mid-September can drop highs into the low-to-mid 80s, as seen in past years with comparable synoptic patterns. Market-implied odds reflect the finality of post-event data releases, leaving little room for revision unless an alternate station or rounding convention is used for resolution—scenarios viewed as improbable by traders given the consistency across primary reporting networks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$78,241End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus has converged on 84-85°F as the resolved high temperature for Miami on September 17, 2026, with near-100% implied probability.** Official observations from Miami International Airport (KMIA) recorded a daily maximum of 83–84°F, well below the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 89.1°F. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and an upper-level low-pressure system suppressed daytime heating and limited insolation, producing measurable precipitation (0.06 inches at the airport) and moderating temperatures. This outcome aligns with real-time surface observations and National Weather Service climate summaries issued that evening. Historical analogs show similar rain-cooled days in mid-September can drop highs into the low-to-mid 80s, as seen in past years with comparable synoptic patterns. Market-implied odds reflect the finality of post-event data releases, leaving little room for revision unless an alternate station or rounding convention is used for resolution—scenarios viewed as improbable by traders given the consistency across primary reporting networks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions