**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C daily maximum in Chengdu on September 22, driven by convergent numerical weather prediction outputs and real-time surface observations.** Multiple forecast models, including those aligned with official Chinese meteorological guidance, indicate peak temperatures reaching but not exceeding this threshold amid cloudy conditions, light easterly winds, and modest humidity levels around 70-85%. This aligns with climatological norms for late-September Sichuan Basin weather, where autumn cooling typically caps highs near the mid-20s under similar synoptic patterns. Recent model runs show minimal spread, reinforcing the market-implied odds near certainty. The primary resolution risk remains an official station reading deviating due to localized urban heat effects, sensor placement, or brief afternoon clearing that allows a marginal spike above 26°C. Updated verification from the China Meteorological Administration will confirm the final value.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 22?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 22?
26°C 100%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$33,005 Vol.
$33,005 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
26°C 100%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$33,005 Vol.
$33,005 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
22°C or below
$1,541 Vol.
No
23°C
$4,096 Vol.
No
24°C
$6,327 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,301 Vol.
No
26°C
$5,231 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$4,089 Vol.
No
28°C
$4,516 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,027 Vol.
No
30°C
$211 Vol.
No
31°C
$555 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$111 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C daily maximum in Chengdu on September 22, driven by convergent numerical weather prediction outputs and real-time surface observations.** Multiple forecast models, including those aligned with official Chinese meteorological guidance, indicate peak temperatures reaching but not exceeding this threshold amid cloudy conditions, light easterly winds, and modest humidity levels around 70-85%. This aligns with climatological norms for late-September Sichuan Basin weather, where autumn cooling typically caps highs near the mid-20s under similar synoptic patterns. Recent model runs show minimal spread, reinforcing the market-implied odds near certainty. The primary resolution risk remains an official station reading deviating due to localized urban heat effects, sensor placement, or brief afternoon clearing that allows a marginal spike above 26°C. Updated verification from the China Meteorological Administration will confirm the final value.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$33,005End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C daily maximum in Chengdu on September 22, driven by convergent numerical weather prediction outputs and real-time surface observations.** Multiple forecast models, including those aligned with official Chinese meteorological guidance, indicate peak temperatures reaching but not exceeding this threshold amid cloudy conditions, light easterly winds, and modest humidity levels around 70-85%. This aligns with climatological norms for late-September Sichuan Basin weather, where autumn cooling typically caps highs near the mid-20s under similar synoptic patterns. Recent model runs show minimal spread, reinforcing the market-implied odds near certainty. The primary resolution risk remains an official station reading deviating due to localized urban heat effects, sensor placement, or brief afternoon clearing that allows a marginal spike above 26°C. Updated verification from the China Meteorological Administration will confirm the final value.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,005End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C daily maximum in Chengdu on September 22, driven by convergent numerical weather prediction outputs and real-time surface observations.** Multiple forecast models, including those aligned with official Chinese meteorological guidance, indicate peak temperatures reaching but not exceeding this threshold amid cloudy conditions, light easterly winds, and modest humidity levels around 70-85%. This aligns with climatological norms for late-September Sichuan Basin weather, where autumn cooling typically caps highs near the mid-20s under similar synoptic patterns. Recent model runs show minimal spread, reinforcing the market-implied odds near certainty. The primary resolution risk remains an official station reading deviating due to localized urban heat effects, sensor placement, or brief afternoon clearing that allows a marginal spike above 26°C. Updated verification from the China Meteorological Administration will confirm the final value.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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