**Persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and northerly flow from approaching Typhoon Dujuan (No. 25) are capping daytime heating in Tokyo on September 20, 2026.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and GFS ensemble runs indicate widespread overcast skies with periods of rain or thunderstorms throughout the day, limiting solar insolation and keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms for mid-September. Forecasts from multiple sources converge on a daily high of 23–24°C (73–75°F), with surface observations and model guidance showing afternoon readings struggling to exceed this range amid high humidity (around 90–95%) and steady precipitation. Recent days saw slightly higher maxima (24–25°C) under clearer conditions, but the typhoon’s outer bands have increased cloud thickness and moisture, suppressing further warming. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 23°C (71.5%) and 24°C (24.5%), reflecting trader consensus on the primary resolution criteria from official Tokyo station data. Key upcoming inputs include updated JMA nowcasts and any late-day clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 25°C, though current model consensus assigns low odds to that outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 20?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 20?
23°C 78%
24°C 21%
25°C 3%
26°C <1%
NEW
$35,775 Vol.
NEW
$35,775 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
78%
24°C
21%
25°C
3%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
23°C 78%
24°C 21%
25°C 3%
26°C <1%
NEW
$35,775 Vol.
NEW
$35,775 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
19°C or below
$1,869 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,491 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,652 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,152 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$10,521 Vol.
78%
24°C
$5,765 Vol.
21%
25°C
$4,166 Vol.
3%
26°C
$4,074 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,702 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,093 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$126 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and northerly flow from approaching Typhoon Dujuan (No. 25) are capping daytime heating in Tokyo on September 20, 2026.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and GFS ensemble runs indicate widespread overcast skies with periods of rain or thunderstorms throughout the day, limiting solar insolation and keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms for mid-September.
Forecasts from multiple sources converge on a daily high of 23–24°C (73–75°F), with surface observations and model guidance showing afternoon readings struggling to exceed this range amid high humidity (around 90–95%) and steady precipitation. Recent days saw slightly higher maxima (24–25°C) under clearer conditions, but the typhoon’s outer bands have increased cloud thickness and moisture, suppressing further warming.
This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 23°C (71.5%) and 24°C (24.5%), reflecting trader consensus on the primary resolution criteria from official Tokyo station data. Key upcoming inputs include updated JMA nowcasts and any late-day clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 25°C, though current model consensus assigns low odds to that outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$35,775End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and northerly flow from approaching Typhoon Dujuan (No. 25) are capping daytime heating in Tokyo on September 20, 2026.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and GFS ensemble runs indicate widespread overcast skies with periods of rain or thunderstorms throughout the day, limiting solar insolation and keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms for mid-September.
Forecasts from multiple sources converge on a daily high of 23–24°C (73–75°F), with surface observations and model guidance showing afternoon readings struggling to exceed this range amid high humidity (around 90–95%) and steady precipitation. Recent days saw slightly higher maxima (24–25°C) under clearer conditions, but the typhoon’s outer bands have increased cloud thickness and moisture, suppressing further warming.
This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 23°C (71.5%) and 24°C (24.5%), reflecting trader consensus on the primary resolution criteria from official Tokyo station data. Key upcoming inputs include updated JMA nowcasts and any late-day clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 25°C, though current model consensus assigns low odds to that outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$35,775End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and northerly flow from approaching Typhoon Dujuan (No. 25) are capping daytime heating in Tokyo on September 20, 2026.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and GFS ensemble runs indicate widespread overcast skies with periods of rain or thunderstorms throughout the day, limiting solar insolation and keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms for mid-September. Forecasts from multiple sources converge on a daily high of 23–24°C (73–75°F), with surface observations and model guidance showing afternoon readings struggling to exceed this range amid high humidity (around 90–95%) and steady precipitation. Recent days saw slightly higher maxima (24–25°C) under clearer conditions, but the typhoon’s outer bands have increased cloud thickness and moisture, suppressing further warming. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 23°C (71.5%) and 24°C (24.5%), reflecting trader consensus on the primary resolution criteria from official Tokyo station data. Key upcoming inputs include updated JMA nowcasts and any late-day clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 25°C, though current model consensus assigns low odds to that outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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