**Trader consensus has coalesced on 21°C as the day's highest temperature in Chengdu, reflecting official meteorological observations confirming that peak amid widespread cloud cover and intermittent showers.** Persistent rain and high humidity suppressed daytime warming, consistent with mid-September climatology in the Sichuan Basin where seasonal cooling and frontal activity typically limit highs to the upper teens or low 20s Celsius. Model guidance from regional forecasts aligned closely with this outcome, showing limited potential for brief breaks in the overcast that might have allowed a spike to 22°C or above. The near-certain market pricing underscores the low likelihood of revision once final station data are verified, though minor adjustments could arise from differences between airport and urban monitoring sites or post-analysis quality control. No major forecast shifts occurred in the final 48 hours to alter this trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 15?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 15?
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$41,547 Vol.
$41,547 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$41,547 Vol.
$41,547 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
16°C or below
$185 Vol.
No
17°C
$392 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,636 Vol.
No
19°C
$6,104 Vol.
No
20°C
$8,824 Vol.
No
21°C
$6,443 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$3,948 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,011 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,155 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,162 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$3,687 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has coalesced on 21°C as the day's highest temperature in Chengdu, reflecting official meteorological observations confirming that peak amid widespread cloud cover and intermittent showers.** Persistent rain and high humidity suppressed daytime warming, consistent with mid-September climatology in the Sichuan Basin where seasonal cooling and frontal activity typically limit highs to the upper teens or low 20s Celsius. Model guidance from regional forecasts aligned closely with this outcome, showing limited potential for brief breaks in the overcast that might have allowed a spike to 22°C or above. The near-certain market pricing underscores the low likelihood of revision once final station data are verified, though minor adjustments could arise from differences between airport and urban monitoring sites or post-analysis quality control. No major forecast shifts occurred in the final 48 hours to alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Volume
$41,547End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has coalesced on 21°C as the day's highest temperature in Chengdu, reflecting official meteorological observations confirming that peak amid widespread cloud cover and intermittent showers.** Persistent rain and high humidity suppressed daytime warming, consistent with mid-September climatology in the Sichuan Basin where seasonal cooling and frontal activity typically limit highs to the upper teens or low 20s Celsius. Model guidance from regional forecasts aligned closely with this outcome, showing limited potential for brief breaks in the overcast that might have allowed a spike to 22°C or above. The near-certain market pricing underscores the low likelihood of revision once final station data are verified, though minor adjustments could arise from differences between airport and urban monitoring sites or post-analysis quality control. No major forecast shifts occurred in the final 48 hours to alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$41,547End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus has coalesced on 21°C as the day's highest temperature in Chengdu, reflecting official meteorological observations confirming that peak amid widespread cloud cover and intermittent showers.** Persistent rain and high humidity suppressed daytime warming, consistent with mid-September climatology in the Sichuan Basin where seasonal cooling and frontal activity typically limit highs to the upper teens or low 20s Celsius. Model guidance from regional forecasts aligned closely with this outcome, showing limited potential for brief breaks in the overcast that might have allowed a spike to 22°C or above. The near-certain market pricing underscores the low likelihood of revision once final station data are verified, though minor adjustments could arise from differences between airport and urban monitoring sites or post-analysis quality control. No major forecast shifts occurred in the final 48 hours to alter this trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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